Guardian’s Allowance Up-rating Order 2012
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Lord Sassoon
That the Grand Committee do report to the House that it has considered the Guardian’s Allowance Up-rating Order 2012.
Relevant document: 40th Report from the Joint Committee on Statutory Instruments.
The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Sassoon)
My Lords, I am pleased to introduce the draft Tax Credits Up-rating Regulations 2012, the draft Guardian’s Allowance Up-rating Order 2012 and the draft Guardian’s Allowance Up-rating (Northern Ireland) Order 2012. In my view these regulations and orders are all compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights.
The regulations and orders before the Committee put into effect a number of reforms to tax credits announced in Budget 2010 and the Autumn Statement last November. The changes I will now outline will ensure that we tackle the deficit in a fair way and that tax credits are targeted at those who need them most. Tax credits are made up of a number of different elements for people in different circumstances. Some of these elements will continue to be increased by the CPI at 5.2 per cent, including elements for disabled workers and severely disabled workers, for children, disabled children and severely disabled children. However, the couple and lone parent elements of working tax credit will be frozen and the basic element and 30 working- hour element will remain frozen.
The family element of child tax credit is currently payable to families with an income of up to £40,000. From April 2012, this threshold will be removed and therefore the family element will be withdrawn immediately after the child element. A disregard of £2,500 for falls in income will be introduced, meaning that any in-year falls of less than £2,500 will be disregarded when recalculating the award. The 50+ element of working tax credit will also be removed. This is time limited to one year and will not affect anyone who is currently claiming. Couples with children will need to work at least 24 hours combined, with one partner working at least 16 hours per week, to qualify for working tax credit. Previously, depending on a family’s circumstances, new claims and changes of circumstance could be backdated by 93 days. From April 2012, this will be reduced to one month.
The changes the Government have made will ensure that we tackle the deficit in a fair way and ensure that tax credits are targeted at those who need them most. Reforms to tax credits included within these regulations and orders mean that support for higher income households will be reduced by increasing the rate at which tax credits are withdrawn while reducing the threshold at which tax credits are paid. Under the previous system around nine out of 10 families with children were eligible for tax credits. This reduced to closer to seven out of 10 families in April 2011 and will be reduced further to six out of 10 from April 2012.
Spending on tax credits has increased from £18 billion in 2003-04 to an estimated £30 billion in 2010-11. The system of tax credits under the previous Government was not only unsustainable in fiscal terms, it was also unrealistic in terms of meeting its stated policy objectives. Let me be clear that this Government are committed to making work pay. The best way to help working people is by taking them out of tax altogether. In April 2012 we will make a £630 increase in the income tax personal allowance, taking it up to £8,105. This is in addition to the £1,000 increase in April 2011. Together, these increases will benefit 25 million individuals and take 1.1 million low-income individuals out of tax from April 2012.
Universal credit will unify the current complex system of means-tested out-of-work benefits, tax credits and support for housing in one single payment. The award will be withdrawn at a single rate, with the aim of offering a smooth transition into work and encouraging progression in work. For parents on working tax credit, the Government continue to provide support for 70 per cent of childcare costs, up to a weekly limit of £175 for families with one child and £300 for two or more children. This support will be extended under universal credit to those working fewer than 16 hours, allowing 80,000 additional families to receive help with childcare costs. This will give second earners and lone parents, typically women, a stronger incentive to work.
This Government are committed to restoring the country to sustainable growth and prosperity. We know that it is not an easy path to tread and we have not shirked our responsibility to take the tough decisions to return the UK to economic stability. It is in that context that I commend these regulations and orders to the Committee.
Lord Eatwell
My Lords, once again these indexing procedures are being used as a stealth tax. As the noble Lord has actually admitted, the shift imposes a significant cost on the poorest families. He has described this as providing an incentive to work. When the economy is growing at 0 per cent a year, there are no extra jobs. What is the point of an incentive to work when there are no jobs for people to work in? In these circumstances, the overall effect is exacerbated by the number of technical changes and by a failure to uprate various thresholds even at the rate of the CPI.
Will the Minister tell us the net benefit to the Treasury—that is, the net loss to the receivers of tax credits—of the changes that are made in these orders? The changes that derive from uprating less than the CPI, and various technical changes, represent one set of losses to the recipients of tax credits. Will he also tell us the overall impact on recipients of tax credits of using the CPI rather than the RPI? Those are the two components of the extra burden that the Government have decided to impose in increasing the incentive to work—while their policies are destroying jobs.
Will the Minister also confirm that the shift from the RPI to the CPI is deemed by the Government to be a permanent aspect of future policies rather than a measure to deal simply with any fiscal difficulties that the Government are encountering? Will he tell us the Treasury’s estimate of the reduction in tax credits by the time the universal credit is introduced?
Finally, the Explanatory Memorandum contains the extraordinary statement:
“This instrument has no impact on business, charities or voluntary bodies”.
Surely this cannot be the case. All charities and voluntary bodies that provide services—for example, to poor children, to the disabled or indeed to anyone struggling to get by—will be shocked by this pathetic excuse for failing to estimate the impact of the Government’s actions. How can the Government justify the statement that there is no impact on the charitable or voluntary sector, which at its most obvious and trivial level is untrue?
Lord Sassoon
My Lords, let me deal with some of those questions. I do not like to do this, but I think this may be a case where I had better go away and follow up by writing to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, and the noble Baroness, Lady Lister of Burtersett, because I suspect that I will not cover all their questions in the detail that they merit. I shall make one or two broad points in response and then, as I say, I will follow those up with detailed answers.
The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, talked about the context in which these orders and regulations are coming forward. It is clear that the level of unemployment is higher than the Government would wish to see. Of course that is the case, but nevertheless, it is a level of unemployment within which the private sector has been vigorously generating new jobs—in excess of half a million new jobs in that sector in the past two years. On the specific point raised by the noble Lord about the availability of jobs, the latest monthly figures show that there are some 476,000 vacancies in the country.
It is simply not the case that jobs are unavailable, and the private sector has been investing vigorously in what are very difficult economic circumstances as we rebalance the economy from an overreliance on the public sector and on excessive leverage. It is critically important that we press on with everything we are doing to encourage people into work, partly through the construct we are talking about this afternoon, by raising the starting rate of tax and with the other measures we are taking.
The noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, raised the question of RPI and CPI. Again, this is not a measure that we take lightly or will reverse in some way. It is a change that we are making because, as I explained in our previous debate and on other occasions, we believe that CPI is the better measure in this instance.
The overall impact of the effects of the measures is best looked at in the distributional effects set out in each of the Budgets and Autumn Statements since the election. These distributional analyses were never published by previous Governments. They are all laid out. If one looks at the cumulative impact on households of tax, tax credit and benefit reforms introduced up to the Autumn Statement, and including the previous fiscal events, the critical thing is that the top income decile sees the largest reduction in income, both in cash terms and as a percentage of net income. In cash terms, the top income decile sees losses 9.8 times that of the bottom decile. The cash losses of the bottom expenditure decile are less than one-tenth—in fact, 6 per cent—of that for the top expenditure decile.
The Government have been concerned to make absolutely sure that the distributional effects of the measures taken as a whole are progressive and that the top 20 per cent of households will make the greatest contribution to what is a challenging deficit reduction.
Lord Eatwell
My Lords, would the noble Lord concede that the impact on the upper decile is almost entirely due to the 50 per cent tax rate introduced by my right honourable friend Mr Alistair Darling?
Lord Sassoon
What I will concede is that we look at the effects of tax, tax credits and benefits together. Therefore, whatever makes up the bundle—some of it inherited, some not—comes in to that mix. Regardless of where individual measures came from, it is important to look at them in the round, which is what we have done and will continue to do.
In relation to the questions of the noble Baroness, Lady Lister, I concede that I will probably fall into the trap of answering in a way that does not quite get to the nub of one or two of them, but I will come back to them. In headline terms, regarding the impact of the Autumn Statement on the number of children in relative income poverty, analysis shows an estimated increase of around 100,000 in 2012-13 on the measure used previously. However, this does not represent a forecast of the actual change in child poverty year on year because the measurement does not take into account, among other things, the value of public services that benefit children such as education and healthcare. These are very important in improving life chances, particularly among poorer households. Again, we have to be very careful here about whether we are using measures that properly capture the full effect of government policies.
In relation specifically to childcare, as I am sure the noble Baroness knows, the Government are investing a further £380 million a year by 2014-15 to extend the offer of 15 hours’ free education and care a week to disadvantaged two year-olds, and to cover an extra 130,000 children. Under the universal credit we are investing an extra £300 million so that 80,000 more families will get help with their childcare costs. However, I have not had a chance to see what has been published today. As I say, I will write on those points.
As I said in my opening remarks, the employment situation in this country is not easy. However, we had to take urgent action to tackle the deficit that we inherited, particularly the unsustainable welfare bill. I have mentioned the extraordinary increase in expenditure on tax credits in seven years from £18 billion to £30 billion a year. It is spending that is poorly targeted and totally unsustainable. The reforms to tax credits in these regulations and orders that we have been discussing are a fair and proportionate way to deal with this very difficult inheritance, as I have explained.
Essentially we have ensured that those most able to contribute to the deficit do so while those with the lowest incomes continue to be supported. It is because of that commitment that the highest decile of earners will make the greatest contribution towards reducing the deficit both in cash terms and as a percentage of their income, as I think the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, recognises. In that context, the orders and regulations before the Committee are an important step towards realising our ambition to restore the UK to economic stability, but in a way that drives prosperity and means that we tackle the deficit in a fair and responsible manner. I commend the orders and regulations to the Committee.
Baroness Lister of Burtersett
Will the noble Lord write to me on the question I asked about the impact on couples of the change from 16 to 24 hours?
Lord Sassoon
I will write. I do not know what information I will be able to give but I assure the noble Baroness that I will cover the point.