Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what recent estimate they have made of the increase in air traffic over the next (1) 10 years, (2) 20 years, and (3) 30 years; what sources of information were used as the basis for any such forecasts; and what plans they have to revise those forecasts further to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

‘UK Aviation Forecasts 2017’ is still our latest forecast. Its aim is to provide a strategic longer-term, instead of short-term, view on demand growth over the next few decades.

The current level of uncertainty makes the production of a new long-term forecast unfeasible at present. For the shorter term, we are proactivity monitoring the current/evolving situation and engaging regularly with the industry on their forecasts and will consider updates to the long term model when it is practical to do so.

Observed UK aviation passenger and Air Transport Movement demand is based primarily on data from the Civil Aviation Authority. The forecast of this demand is determined by key drivers, such as GDP and fares, and the estimated relationships between such drivers and passenger demand. Detailed information can be found in the published UK Aviation Forecasts 2017 on DfT’s website.