Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:

To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the report Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020, published on 15 July, whether the Met Office's analysis assumes that all the months of June during 1926–2020 have the same statistical distribution for their daily temperature maxima at Verkhoyansk; and if so, why.

The analysis does not assume that all the months of June during 1926-2020 have the same statistical distribution for the highest of their daily temperature maxima at Verkhoyansk. Instead, the method involves modelling secular changes in the data by a covariance with smoothed Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) and first removing this to create a set of residuals that may be assumed to be stationary and to which a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) fit is then made. This method, based on peer-reviewed literature, is set out in the linked methods document which accompanies the report.