Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the financial consequences of ending the overseas care worker visa route; and how many vacancies are likely to arise in the care sector as a result.

The Department considered the potential impact of the Immigration White Paper (IWP) as part of its assessment to inform the Spending Review. The Home Office made an assessment in the technical annex of the IWP that closing the route could by reduce net migration by 7,000 people per year. As a guide to scale, there were nearly one million filled posts for care workers and senior care workers in the sector in 2023/24. Therefore, while the Department does not project the number of vacancies advertised by independent providers in the adult social care (ASC) sector, any direct impact on capacity is likely to be limited. This is partly because there will be a transition period until 2028, to be kept under review, where in-country switching for those already in the United Kingdom will continue to be permitted.

The Spending Review allows for an increase of over £4 billion of funding for ASC in 2028/29 compared to 2025/26. This includes additional grant funding, growth in other sources of income available to support ASC, and an increase to the National Health Service contribution to ASC via the Better Care Fund compared to 2025/26. The Department continues to monitor ASC workforce capacity, bringing together national data sets from Skills for Care’s monthly tracking data, the Capacity Tracker tool, and intelligence from key sector partners. The Department primarily uses filled posts as the most accurate measure of ASC workforce capacity rather than the number of vacancies. As vacancies are the total number of posts advertised by the ASC sector’s independent and competing providers, they don’t reflect the number of workers required to meet ASC needs and are not necessarily a good indicator of capacity pressures.

In England, as per the Care Act (2014), it is the responsibility of local government to develop a market that delivers a wide range of sustainable high-quality care and support services, that will be available to their communities. English local authorities have responsibility under the Care Act 2014 to meet ASC needs, and statutory guidance directs them to ensure there is sufficient workforce in ASC.