Question to the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero:

To ask His Majesty's Government what recent assessment they have made of the reasonable worst case scenario for a solar flare; and what consideration they have given to (1) the Carrington Event of 1859, and (2) the coronal mass ejection of 12 March 2023.

The National Security Risk Assessment includes the reasonable worst case scenario assessing the impacts of severe space weather phenomena, such as solar flares, on essential services. This was updated in 2022 and reflects the latest scientific and engineering knowledge, including appropriate historical data from the Carrington Event.

Met Office modelling suggests that the coronal mass ejection of 12 March 2023 erupted from the far-side of the Sun travelling away from the Earth, at a similar speed to the Carrington event of 1859.