Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact on public confidence in the safety of returning to work and schools of the forecasted number of deaths resulting from a reasonable worst-case scenario in a resurgence of COVID-19 during the winter being double that that has already occurred.

The Government has undertaken no specific assessment. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies reviewed a paper on direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity in July, which provides a scenario-based estimate for additional deaths that may result from the changes necessary to routine care during the first six months of the pandemic. A copy of the paper is attached.