Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s assessment in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook March 2025 that 3 million people will be in receipt of the Universal Credit health element in 2029–30; and how many people they forecast will be in receipt of it in 2029–30, by age and region.

The Memorandum of understanding between the Office for Budget Responsibility, HM Treasury, the Department for Work & Pensions, and HM Revenue & Customs sets out the responsibilities of the OBR and government departments in the preparation of forecasts for welfare spending at fiscal events, including how this is presented in the OBR’s publication the Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

In line with paragraph 2.7 of the MoU, the DWP forecasts for the UC health journey caseloads are produced in consultation with OBR and are consistent with the OBR Spring Statement 2025 forecasts. These will be published in the DWP’s Outturn and Forecast tables on 23rd April.

Figures by region and age are not available for UC health journey caseloads.