Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government what they estimate will be the cost to the public purse of clinical negligence by 2030; and what steps they intend to take to reduce this cost.

As part of the written evidence to the Health and Social Care Select Committee’s inquiry into National Health Service litigation reform in 2022, following work with the Government Actuary's Department and NHS Resolution (NHSR), the Department advised that projections for the Clinical Negligence Scheme for Trusts (CNST) indicated that by 2029/30, annual cash payments for clinical negligence under the CNST could increase to £4.3 billion. The CNST, the largest clinical negligence scheme, covers all clinical negligence claims against member NHS bodies where the incident in question took place on or after 1 April 1995. The estimate does not include other smaller clinical negligence schemes run by NHSR. A copy of the Department’s full written evidence to the inquiry is attached.

The National Audit Office has announced that it is undertaking a review of clinical negligence costs this year, including an up-to-date assessment of how total cash costs may change in the future, and will publish its report in autumn 2025. Full details of the review can be found on the National Audit Office’s website, in an online only format.