Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:
To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the cost to the Exchequer for each of the next 20 years of increasing state pensions by the best of price or earnings inflation in place of a triple lock.
The table below provides the estimated cost to the Exchequer for each of the next 20 years of increasing state pensions by the best of price or earnings inflation (‘double lock’) in place of a triple lock.
The figures assume that the change in uprating happens from 2023/24. They are based on analysis done in 2018, so they do not take into account any impacts of covid-19.
| Expenditure Prices (£billion) as a percentage of GDP | |
Financial Year | Double Lock | Triple Lock |
2020/21 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
2021/22 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2022/23 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2023/24 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
2024/25 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
2025/26 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
2026/27 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
2027/28 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
2028/29 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
2029/30 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
2030/31 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
2031/32 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
2032/33 | 5.2 | 5.3 |
2033/34 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
2034/35 | 5.4 | 5.5 |
2035/36 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
2036/37 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
2037/38 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
2038/39 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
2039/40 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
2040/41 | 5.7 | 5.8 |
Source: DWP modelling. The figures include the cost of the State Pension. They do not include the cost of Pension Credit or other pensioner benefits.