Question to the Department for Education:

To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the likely increase in pupil numbers in state schools in the next year arising from a reduction in the number of pupils being privately educated.

Education is a devolved matter, and the response outlines the information for England only.

As set out in HM Treasury’s government response to the technical note on applying VAT to private school fees and removing the business rates charitable rate relief, the government estimates that approximately 3,000 pupils will move from private schools to state schools in the 2024/25 academic year. The response can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vat-on-private-school-fees-removing-the-charitable-rates-relief-for-private-schools.

The government predicts that in the long-term steady state, 37,000 pupils will leave or never enter the UK private school sector as a result of the removal of the VAT exemption applied to school fees. This represents around 6% of the current private school population.

Of those leaving or never entering the private sector, the government estimates an increase of 35,000 pupils in the state sector in the steady state following the VAT policy taking effect, with the other 2,000 either being international pupils who do not move into the UK state system, or domestic pupils moving into homeschooling. This state sector increase represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over 9 million. This movement is expected to take place over several years. Additionally, the government expects approximately 2,900 pupils will move into state schools in England following the business rates policy taking effect.

As such, the impact on the state education system as a whole is expected to be very small.

Local authorities, devolved governments and schools have processes in place to support pupils moving between schools. Children move between and within the private sector and the state-funded sector every year, for a range of reasons.