Question to the Department for Education:

To ask His Majesty's Government how many additional state school places they estimate will be required by 2026 to accommodate those children anticipated to leave the independent education sector.

This government is committed to ending the VAT exemption that private schools enjoy. While the impact of this policy is being fully considered, projections by the Institute for Fiscal Studies indicate that the number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of these changes is likely to represent a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector, with any displacement expected to take place over several years. This research can be found here: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.

The department cannot be certain of the precise level, if any, of transfer from independent to state sectors additional to the movements between schools, and between the private and state sectors, which happen each year in all parts of the country. The department will be monitoring demand and capacity using its normal processes and will work with local authorities to meet any pressures.

The government will confirm the introduction of these tax policy changes at the Budget on 30 October. Following scrutiny of the government’s costing by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, details of the government’s assessment of the expected impacts of these policy changes will be published at the Budget in the usual way.