Question to the Department for Exiting the European Union :

To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the differential impact of (1) leaving the EU without a deal, and (2) staying in the EU, over the next 10 years.

The 2016 referendum delivered a clear instruction to withdraw from the European Union, which the Government is committed to implementing. The Government remains focused on ensuring a smooth and orderly withdrawal from the EU with a deal as soon as possible.

In November 2018, the Government delivered on its commitment to provide appropriate analysis to Parliament with a robust, objective assessment of how exiting the EU may affect the economy of the UK in the long run (circa 15 years). The analysis considers a range of scenarios, including a no deal scenario. All scenarios are compared to today’s arrangements, but this is not a specific projection of future membership of the EU; the future direction of EU policy is uncertain, and could have both positive and negative impacts on the UK economy. Whilst all economic modelling is inherently uncertain, the analysis shows that compared to today’s arrangements, GDP in the modelled no deal scenario is estimated to be between 6.3% and 9% lower in the long run.