Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask His Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Lord Markham on 15 December 2023 (HL453), whether their planning scenarios specifically include (1) a respiratory pandemic that creates greater demand for critical care than the COVID-19 pandemic, and (2) a respiratory pandemic that affects a different demographic, in particular one that disproportionately affects children and babies.

We cannot perfectly predict the characteristics of a future pandemic or know precisely which groups will be most affected by it. We are therefore strengthening our pandemic preparedness by considering the flexible and scalable response capabilities that can be adapted to any threat that the health and social care system may need to respond to.

The National Risk Register 2023 outlines the most serious threats facing the United Kingdom with an updated assessment of likelihood and potential impact. Risk 54 describes the risk from a pandemic and provides a reasonable worst-case scenario (RWCS) for an unmitigated respiratory pandemic, as well variations based on different pathogens with different routes of transmission. A copy of the register is attached.

The RWCS assumes that 50% of the UK’s population fall ill during the whole course of the pandemic, with approximately 1.34 million people estimated to require hospital treatment, possibly resulting in up to 840,000 deaths.

We continue to review our pandemic planning in response to information and lessons learned from COVID-19 and other disease outbreaks.