Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answers by Lord Bethell on 6 January (HL9878, HL9881, HL9883, HL9957), what reasonable worst-case planning scenario estimates were applied to the forecast modelling used to inform the decision to place England under national restrictions in (1) March 2020, (2) November 2020 and (3) January 2021; and to what extent the new COVID-19 variant has altered the assumptions underpinning the January restrictions.

The Reasonable Worst Case Scenario is an operational contingency planning tool. The Government has used a broad range of health, social and economic evidence to inform decision making, including modelled projections. The evidence used to introduce measures on 5 January 2021 included amended assumptions based on the increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant.