Question to the Department for Education:

To ask His Majesty's Government what assumptions they used to estimate the take-up of the expansion of free childcare hours in the Spring Budget 2023 (HC 560); whether those assumptions have been subsequently revised; and if so, when and by how much.

Information regarding the assumptions of take-up of the expanded working parent entitlements and funding made available at Spring Budget 2023 can be found here: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66221ba8252f0d71cf757d2b/Spring_budget_2023_childcare_expansion_costing_note_information.pdf.

In subsequent fiscal events, this government has provided funding uplifts for the overall early years entitlements budget which includes both the new working parents entitlements and the established entitlements. The Autumn Budget 2024 announced an additional £1.8 billion of funding for the early years entitlements in 2025/26, compared to 2024/25. The spending review 2025 announced an additional £1.6 billion per year by 2028/29, compared to 2025/26, for the early years entitlements. The early years entitlements budget is demand-led, with final totals confirmed the term after the end of the financial year through the dedicated schools grant allocations.

Estimates of take-up of the expanded working parent entitlements have been updated each year using the annual official statistics release on funded early education and childcare, which reported a take up rate of 84% of the estimated number of eligible two-year-olds, 70% of the estimated number of eligible one-year-olds and 42% of the estimated number of eligible under-one-year-olds. The latest statistics can be found here: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/funded-early-education-and-childcare/2025#releaseHeadlines-tables.