Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the (a) anticipated and (b) actual level of demand for health services was in 2025–26; and whether the actual level of demand has increased in line with the trends since the end of the pandemic.

Demand and costs for health services in 2025/26 was assessed and agreed with HM Treasury through the 2021 Spending Review negotiations, which are not published, as per standard practice. The national analysis takes into account the effect of population ageing and wider demographic changes, and also a range of estimates to understand how particular demand increases will affect the National Health Service, for example the cost of introducing new drugs, treatments, and policies designed to make sure patients are assessed and receive care in the most appropriate setting, for example through neighbourhood health models.

The 2025/26 operational planning guidance sets out the need for integrated care boards and trusts to deliver targets across primary, community, and acute care, including mental health services. It sets out the expectation for NHS organisations to reduce their cost base by at least 1% and to achieve 4% improvement in productivity, in order to deal with demand growth within the finances available and ensure effective demand management.