Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what estimate he has made of the potential impact of the introduction of the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine for people aged between 75 and 79 on the number (a) deaths, (b) hospital admissions and (c) GP appointments.

The UK Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA) analysis in the Lancet journal in April indicated 30% fewer respiratory syncytial virus hospital admissions in 75- to 79-year-olds than would have occurred without vaccination. This was seen after around 40% of eligible older people had taken up their vaccination and uptake has since increased.

The full analysis is available at the following link:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)00346-0/fulltext.

At the June 2025 meeting of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, UKHSA presented new estimates of averted deaths and admissions in those aged 75 to 79 years. This was based on enhanced hospital surveillance and conservative estimates of vaccine waning over three seasons.

They estimate:

• 112.8 admissions prevented per 100,000 doses [around 890 vaccines prevents one admission]
• 8.6 deaths prevented per 100,000 doses [around 11,600 vaccines prevents one death]
• Before the vaccine roll-out, predictive analysis suggested that with high uptake, the 75–79-year-olds programme could prevent 17,000 GP attendances.