Question to the Cabinet Office:

To ask the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for the Cabinet Office, what assessment he has made of the consequences of the choice of date for the covid-19 lockdown in autumn 2020 and how this compared with projected consequences based on the lockdown recommendations of SAGE at that time.

Throughout the pandemic the Government has carefully balanced the economic and social implications of restrictions with the need to protect public health. This has required many difficult judgements.

The Government has always listened carefully to the views of the scientific community when making decisions; in particular, the information from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and its sub-groups.

Advice published in SAGE 66 was that: ‘if well-adhered to, the lockdown measures due to start in England on 5th November are likely to reduce R to less than 1. If this is sustained until 2nd December, the number of hospital admissions and deaths would be expected to fall until at least the second week of December.’

The subsequent data clearly shows that the national measures the Government put in place from 5 November until 2 December 2020 increased precautionary behaviours and reduced prevalence, which in turn reduced rates of hospitalisation and mortality.