Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, pursuant to the Answer of 23 April 2025 to Question 45355 on Personal Independence Payment, if she will make an assessment of the (a) causes of the increase in claims for PIP to include (i) health related and (ii) behaviour related factors and (b) the rate of increase in economic inactivity due to long-term sickness and disability over the same period.

The number of new claims registered for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) increased from around 41,000 a month in 2019 to 74,000 a month in 2024.

The number of economically inactive people who cite long-term sickness or disability as their main reason for inactivity increased from around 2.1 million in the last quarter (October to December) of 2019 to 2.8 million in the last quarter of 2024.

It is not possible to assess the relative contribution of each of the potential causes of the increase in PIP claims because it is likely that many different drivers are interacting with each other, both in aggregate and for individual claimants.

However, we will continue to monitor potential drivers of new claims demand for PIP. These include higher prevalence and recognition of health conditions, whether that’s driven by the direct health impacts of the COVID-19 virus; indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns on physical health (through reduced activity) and mental health (through reduced social interaction and increased anxiety); impacts of subsequent labour market changes and cost of living pressures on health; or increases in NHS waiting times. These potential causes in turn may interact with behavioural factors including: cost of living pressures; greater awareness of disability benefits (in part due to cost of living); longer waits for NHS treatment; economically inactive people being more likely to report long-term illness or disability as their main reason for inactivity; and incentives in the benefit system that can encourage people to claim health-related benefits.

Sources:

(a) PIP new claim registrations taken from Stat-Xplore (Stat-Xplore - Log in), excluding Reassessments from Disability Living Allowance and excluding claims from people living in Scotland, because policy ownership was devolved to Scotland during this period.

(b) Estimates of economically inactive people by main reason are published by the Office for National Statistics in Table INAC01 SA of their Labour Market Overview (Labour market overview, UK - Office for National Statistics). Estimates are seasonally adjusted and relate to people aged 16-64 in the United Kingdom.