Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, whether her Department has conducted quantitative analysis into the potential causes of increases in claims for Personal Independence Payment into shares attributable to (a) underlying ill health, (b) financial incentives and (c) other personal or behavioural factors; and whether such analysis includes a comparison with the rate of increase in economic inactivity due to long-term sickness or disability over the same period.

The Department has not conducted quantitative analysis exactly as described; however, we do regularly monitor potential drivers of new claims demand for PIP and how this compares with changes in disability prevalence in the population. It is likely that both health-related and behaviour-related factors have been important contributory factors in the rising number of claims for PIP, as well as changes in the population, with demand for PIP accelerating since the COVID-19 pandemic.

A number of health-related factors may have contributed to these increases, including: higher prevalence and recognition of health conditions, particularly mental health and neurodiverse conditions; the direct health impacts of the COVID-19 virus; indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns on physical health (through reduced activity) and mental health (through reduced social interaction and increased anxiety); impacts of subsequent labour market changes and cost of living pressures on health; and increases in NHS waiting times.

In addition, a number of behavioural factors are also likely to have contributed to higher numbers claiming incapacity and disability benefits, including: cost of living pressures; greater awareness of disability benefits (in part due to cost of living); longer waits for NHS treatment; economically inactive people being more likely to report long-term illness or disability as their main reason for inactivity; and incentives in the benefit system that can encourage people to claim health-related benefits.