Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, what assessment she has made of the potential impact of the two child benefit limit on (a) the levels of child poverty since July 2024 and (b) the projected levels of child poverty in each year until 2029-30.

No assessment has been made using current methodological practices on this basis.

However, the department has previously produced a poverty impact assessment using OBR Spring Statement 2025 Round 2 economic assumptions on an outdated version of the DWP Policy Simulation Model. Using this methodology, the department has estimated the poverty impact removing the two-child benefit limit. Removing the two-child benefit limit has been estimated to decrease the number of children in relative poverty after housing costs by 300,000 (2.2%) in 2025/26, 300,000 (2.3%) in 2026/27, 300,000 (2.3%) in 2027/28, 350,000 (2.6%) in 2028/29, and 350,000 (2.6%) in 2029/30.

Estimates have been rounded to the nearest 50,000 and are on a UK basis. The poverty impacts are independent of the underlying trends in poverty so they are not an estimate of the total change in poverty over time.

The model used to produce this estimate is a pre-Spring Statement model and will be updated with the policies announced at the Spring Statement in due course.

Delivering our manifesto commitment to tackle child poverty is an urgent priority for this Government, and we will bring forward the Child Poverty Strategy as soon as we are able.

The Strategy will look at all available levers across four key themes of increasing incomes, including considering social security reforms, reducing essential costs, increasing financial resilience; and better local support especially in the early years. This will build on the reform plans underway across Government and work underway in Devolved Governments.