Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the Government’s modelling estimates the average likelihood is of a UK resident catching covid-19 in the next seven days; and what the estimated peak of the covid-19 outbreak is for (a) individuals who do not follow the Government’s advice on reducing the spread of the virus, (b) individuals who do follow the Government’s advice and (c) individuals who go further than the Government's advice and reduce their social contact.

The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision making on COVID-19 has now been published at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response