Question to the Department of Health and Social Care:

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the Government’s modelling suggests the peak level of covid-19 infection will be; how many people will be infected at that point; and what the confidence intervals are around that projection.

The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision making on COVID-19 has now been published at the following link:

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response