Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what estimate she has made of the number of (a) private school pupils in (i) Devon, (ii) Torbay and (iii) Plymouth who will transfer into the state sector in this and each of the next five years and (b) surplus places in state secondary schools in each of those areas in each of those years.

This government is committed to ending the VAT exemption that private schools enjoy. The impact of this policy is being fully considered. As part of this process, the department is sharing sector insights, including input from school leadership, student perspectives and input from parents and caregivers.

Following scrutiny by the Office for Budget Responsibility, further details of the government’s assessment of the expected impact will be published at the Budget in the usual way.

The department will be monitoring demand and capacity using its normal processes and working with local authorities to meet any pressures.

Institute for Fiscal Studies research indicates that the number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of these changes is likely to represent a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector. The government expects any displacement to take place over several years, reducing immediate pressures. This research can be found here: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-should-we-interpret-parties-public-spending-pledges-election and https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.

The department cannot be certain of the precise level, if any, of transfer from independent to state sectors additional to the movements between schools, and between the private and state sectors, which happen each year in all parts of the country.