Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of VAT changes on (a) private schools and (b) demand on the state sector in North Dorset constituency.

The department has made no separate estimate of the number of pupils in North Dorset specifically who will leave the independent school system as a result of VAT impact on school fees.

Across the UK as a whole, including North Dorset, the government predicts, in the long-term steady state, there will be 37,000 fewer pupils in the private sector in the UK as a result of the removal of the VAT exemption applied to school fees. This represents around 6% of the current private school population.

Of the 37,000 pupil reduction in the private sector, the government estimates an increase of 35,000 pupils in the state sector in the steady state following the VAT policy taking effect, with the other 2,000 consisting of international pupils who do not move into the UK state system, and domestic pupils moving into homeschooling. This state sector increase represents less than 0.5% of total UK state school pupils, of which there are over 9 million. This movement is expected to take place over several years.

The impact on individual local authorities will interact with other pressures and vary. Every year lots of pupils move between schools, including between the private and state-funded sectors.

Local authorities routinely support parents who need a state-funded school place, including where private schools have closed. Where local authorities are experiencing difficulties in ensuring there are enough school places for children that need them, the department will offer support and advice.

The department provides capital funding through the basic need grant to support local authorities to provide school places, based on their own pupil forecasts and school capacity data. They can use this funding to provide places in new schools or through expansions of existing schools.

Dorset Council has been allocated just below £1.5 million to support the provision of new mainstream school places needed over the current and next two academic years, up to and including the academic year starting in September 2026.