Question to the Department for Education:

To ask the Secretary of State for Education, what recent assessment she has made of (a) morale in the teaching profession, (b) long-term prospects for teacher recruitment and retention and (c) the potential effect of increases in pupil numbers on (i) morale and (ii) recruitment and retention in that profession.

Teaching continues to be a popular career choice. The Government is working with the profession to raise the status of teaching and is attracting the brightest and best to a career in the classroom, with the result that record numbers of highly-qualified graduates and experienced career changes are now teaching in schools.

On retention, latest statistics (School Workforce Census, November 2014) show that teacher retention one year after qualifying has remained stable, at around 90 per cent, for the past two decades. In addition, 72 per cent of those who qualified in 2009 were still in teaching five years later and the long-term retention rate is also stable, with over 60 per cent of teachers remaining in the classroom 10 years after qualifying.

The Department for Education is continually working to grow a strong pipeline of teachers and has developed a package of measures to support both the recruitment of new trainees (who account for around a half of all new entrants to the state-funded sector each year) and the retention of existing teachers.

Latest figures show there are a record number of teachers, with a record number coming back to the profession. The Initial Teacher Training census, published in November 2015, shows that three per cent more people started postgraduate teacher training than in the previous year. We recognise, however, that as the economy improves and the labour market strengthens, teacher recruitment is becoming increasingly challenging for some schools – particularly in some areas of the country and in some shortage subjects. That is why we are offering a range of bursaries and scholarships worth up to £30,000 tax-free to trainees in 2016/17. In addition, we are launching the National Teacher Service, as well as expanding the Teach First and School Direct programmes which will mean more great teachers in every corner of the country.

In terms of the long term recruitment of teachers, we use the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) to estimate Initial Teacher Training place requirements in England each year to meet the state-funded sector demand for qualified teachers. Forecasts are related to a range of factors including year-on-year pupil population growth rates, teacher leaving rates, and curriculum changes.

The 2016/17 version of the TSM, which was used to inform the 2016/17 ITT recruitment process, along with a user guide explaining the methodology in detail, is available at the following link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/teacher-supply-model