Question to the Department for Work and Pensions:

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, with reference to paragraph 4.58 of the Office for Budget Responsibility publication entitled Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published in March 2024, whether he has made an estimate of future trends in the level of fraud in Universal Credit claims.

DWP produces forecasts of overpayments in the benefit system as part of its forecasts for benefit expenditure. These are reviewed and agreed by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which uses them as part of its fiscal forecasting and to evaluate policy costings.

As per our commitment published in the Treasury Minutes, CP 1029 – Treasury Minutes – Government Response to the Committee of Public Accounts on the Eightieth report from Session 2022-23 and the First to the Sixth reports from Session 2023-24 (parliament.uk), we will set out our forecast in the Annual Report and Accounts for financial year 23/24, expected to be published later this year.