Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, how much additional UK electricity demand from domestic heating systems he estimates there will be by 2030.

BEIS regularly publishes projections of energy demand and emissions (EEP) under current policies, including projections of electricity demand in the residential sector. The most recent edition (EEP 2019) was published on 30^th October 2020. In these projections, electricity demand in the residential sector in 2030 is expected to be 120 TWh. The EEP only takes account of policies classed as implemented, adopted, planned or expired as of August 2019, as specified by international reporting guidelines.

Projections for the component of this demand that is due to electric heating are not available.

For further detail on the projections please see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2019.

My Rt. Hon. Friend the Prime Minister’s Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution set out an ambition to install 600 thousand heat pumps a year by 2028 to keep us on track for net zero. The forthcoming Heat and Buildings Strategy will set out a range of policy approaches to reach this ambition. It will include regulations, targeted public investment policies, and a new market-based mechanism. Once these policies have been consulted on and finalised then they will be represented in published departmental energy projections.