Question to the Department for Transport:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimate he has made of the number of international flights (a) to and (b) from each UK airport in the event that (i) the north-west runway at Heathrow is built and (ii) if no additional airport capacity is built in the South East of England.

The Government has fully assessed the impact of expansion in the South East on the UK’s connectivity, as set out in Chapter 3 of the Updated Appraisal Report. The Government is clear that a Northwest Runway at Heathrow will help to secure the UK’s status as a global aviation hub, while regional airports will continue to develop their point-to-point networks.

This conclusion is supported by the analysis which shows that passenger numbers and international flights at airports outside of London are expected to increase by 80% and 71% respectively between 2016 and 2050 with a third runway at Heathrow. In addition, passengers from all across the UK are expected to use the connections made available at an expanded Heathrow, with nearly 6 million additional trips from passengers outside of London and the South East being made via the airport in 2040.

Table 1 below shows the forecast number of international passenger Air Transport Movements (ATM) from the Department’s 2017 UK aviation forecasts.^[1] The Government recognises that all three schemes for expansion in the South East are projected to result in regional airports experiencing somewhat slower growth in international flights than they might otherwise have seen. However, there is still expected to be strong growth at non-London airports relative to today. Expansion will also improve the UK’s connectivity as a whole with more frequent services to important destinations around the world, providing benefits for passengers and freight-operators across the UK, supporting economic growth.

It is recognised that Table 1 does not reflect this hub benefit nor the considerably greater scope that expansion brings for more domestic flights from regional airports to Heathrow, which would provide passengers from across the country access to a vast network of international destinations. In addition, the modelling does not take account of the future commercial strategies which individual airports could employ to take advantage of the opportunities from both greater connections and growing demand outside London.

Heathrow expansion has been supported by a range of UK airports, including Liverpool John Lennon, Glasgow and Newquay.

Table 1: International passenger Air Transport Movements at modelled UK airports, thousands

^[1] An ATM represents a single use of a runway – either a landing or a take-off – so the numbers of take-offs and landings are each half of the total displayed.