Question to the Department for International Trade:

To ask the Secretary of State for International Trade, what steps her Department takes to model economically the potential effects of any trade deals under consideration; and what steps her Department takes to consult experts in its preparation of economic models used in trade deals.

The Department for International Trade (DIT) has published scoping assessments that set out a preliminary DIT analysis of the potential long-run economic impacts of trade deals with the US, Australia, New Zealand, and an impact assessment providing analysis of the agreement with Japan, which includes both external modelling commissioned from Prof. Joe Francois as well as DIT’s own analysis.

The published analysis uses Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling. This approach is widely used internationally for trade analysis. The Department also operates a Partial Equilibrium trade model that was developed for DIT by InterAnalysis at Sussex University, which is used to inform policy development. The Department initiated a review of its approach to modelling in September 2020, which is led by Prof. Tony Venables, and we expect to conclude in September 2021.