Question to the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy:

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, with reference to the oral contribution of the Paymaster General of 1 February 2022, Official Report, column 160, that the estimate of fraud in the bounce back loan scheme had been revised down from £4.9 billion to £3.3 billion, if he will publish the methodology used to produce that revised figure.

The Department’s 2020-2021 Annual Report and Accounts (ARA) estimates a loss of £4.9 billion relating to the Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) because of fraud. This is based upon the sampling exercise work undertaken by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in 2020, details of which are set out in the ARA. The fraud and error estimate for the scheme, it was concluded, ranges from £3.6 billion to £6.3 billion, with the central estimate value being £4.9 billion (11.15%) of loan facilities.

More recent information from PwC suggests a reduction in the central BBLS fraud estimate to 7.5%. This estimate requires further verification as our work with lenders and government agencies to identify fraudulent loans continues.