Viscount Ridley
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Viscount Ridley Excerpts
Lord May of Oxford (CB)
My Lords, I am a member of the Committee on Climate Change and was a member of the committee of both Houses that helped draft the legislation. I want to inject a fact or two into the discussion. The first thing the Committee on Climate Change did was to ask, “How much carbon, looking to 2050, do we think the world can have put into the atmosphere without exceeding a dangerous level of climate change?”. On that basis, we then divided that total by an estimate of the population of Britain in 2050. I would be the first to admit that that second figure is a little uncertain but that was the basis of the ambition that we set and of the overall target that was given for our goal for the end of 2050. We then put the committee together and asked, “Feasibly, how do we think we can get there?”. It was decided—I think sensibly—that the first thing to do was to decarbonise power. Once you do that, you can begin to do other, more difficult things. When looking at decadal timescales, you can look at the possibility of having surface transport primarily done by electricity and that will be okay if we decarbonise the power supply.
We then set intermediate goals. One of them was to come as close as we can by 2030 to decarbonising the energy source through renewables and other things. It was seen that the trajectory to that from 2010, which was when we were talking, was still going to involve coal and gas—gas more efficiently than coal. One thing that the noble Lord, Lord Lawson, and I agree on is that, given that we have to make that trajectory to 2030 and we will still have to use carbon-producing products to generate the energy, shale gas might be the best intermediate way to get there.
To get there, we also need industry to see that we are committed to getting there, to get it in turn preparing and talking of massive investment, but on the premise that there will be support and continuing commitment to those goals. This is primary legislation and the goals that have been accepted by the Government are legally binding, and I am in the habit of asking, on the Committee on Climate Change and elsewhere, “What does legally binding mean?”. I have not yet had a satisfactory answer. In so far as that phrase means something to some people, we have a legally binding interim target of decarbonising electricity by 2030.
That is why at the draft stage of the Bill the Committee on Climate Change recommended that it include not a vague statement of aspiration but the explicit wording essentially equivalent to that of the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh. In some sense, you could say we are legally committed to it but it would make common sense to vote for that amendment, as it is consistent with the history and where the facts lie. There are no two ways about it.
Viscount Ridley (Con)
My Lords, I declare my interests in various forms of energy as listed in the register. I cannot declare the probably seven-figure annual sum that I do not receive because I do not allow wind turbines on my land in a very windy part of Northumberland. I say that not to elicit the House’s sympathy, obviously, but to emphasise the point that the Government would be right to resist this amendment because it would hit the poorer even harder and reward the rich even more, by encouraging enormously expensive renewable energy, particularly the wind industry, particularly offshore wind. Effectively, this amendment would lock in now the wrong technologies, the ones that we know are inefficient in producing decarbonisation and which are immensely expensive.
We have heard a lot already today about the interests and needs of producers of energy. As I said in Committee, it is much more important that we think about the needs and interests of consumers of energy. We do not build power stations for the people who build them or the people who plan them; we build them for the people who use the electricity that comes from them, and thereby provide jobs with that electricity.
We know three things now that we did not know at the start of the summer when the Bill first arrived in this House. The first is that the public are right royally fed up with rising energy bills and are not going to take kindly to further increases, which is what we are talking about. Secondly, wind in particular—as with a lot of renewables—needs even bigger subsidies than we have been led to expect. We were told that the strike price for offshore wind would come down from around £150 per megawatt-hour to about £100. That target has now been abandoned; it is coming down to £135. That is an extremely expensive product—about three times the price of wholesale electricity at the moment. The third thing we have learnt—and I am going to come on to this at the end of my speech—is that climate change is happening more slowly than expected.
If all three of those points are taken together, it would be completely mad to lock in a target now for 2030. It would also be potentially callous because it would encourage an increase in the price of electricity.
Lord May of Oxford
My Lords, what the noble Viscount, Lord Ridley, has just said was factually incorrect. Climate change temperature has fluctuations. The noble Viscount does not understand the statistics properly; it is basically the same problem he had with his thesis. It fluctuates; it goes up; it flattens a bit. But the statement made by the noble Viscount, as if it were a flat generality, was inaccurate.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I shall repeat the statement. Later in my remarks I shall come back and justify it. Climate change is happening more slowly than expected. Far from locking in highly expensive energy, as we are doing, we should be reconsidering the huge cost that we are afflicting the most vulnerable with to comfort the most comfortable. Offshore wind costs about four times as much as gas: £270 per megawatt-hour is the total cost, including connections and system costs, for offshore wind compared with about £66 for gas. We are asking hard-working families to pay over the odds for their electricity in order to provide subsidies to generate power and in order to provide subsidies not to generate power. Last year, £30 million was paid to wind companies not to produce power at a time when it was not needed. Furthermore, we are asking them to pay over the odds to pay for the short-term operating reserve, which is the balancing mechanism by which we make up for the fact that wind is unpredictable. That consists largely of fleets of diesel generators, which are being increased in number by the national grid towards 8 gigawatts, combined with open-cycle gas turbines—both of which are higher carbon than combined-cycle and extremely expensive.
Moreover, we are asking hard-working families to pay over the odds to upgrade the grid and the network costs involved in that, specifically for wind. We are asking them to pay for a carbon floor price, the specific purpose of which is to make fossil fuels look less cheap compared with renewables. Finally, we are asking them to pay over the odds to compensate energy-intensive industries for these costs that we are putting on to them. All of these things end up on people’s bills at the end of the day and they are not paid through general taxation, where the richest could pay more of them: they are paid through people’s electricity bills. Green levies have risen by about tenfold in 10 years, but we ain’t seen nothing yet. By 2020, about £13 billion, if you include system costs and VAT, will be spent every year, compared with about £2.9 billion today, on the support for renewable energy, particularly wind. The biggest part of that will be going to offshore wind. People’s bills will go up as a result of green subsidies by 33% by 2020 and 41% by 2030, according to figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Lord Krebs
My Lords, I invite the noble Viscount, Lord Ridley, to explain to the House why he disagrees with the climate change committee’s calculations to which I alluded earlier.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, we are taking about the same sorts of numbers. The percentage addition I am talking about is how much of the increase we shall see in future will come from energy subsidies. As I said, I took the figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Lord Krebs
So does the noble Viscount accept the climate change committee’s calculation that less than 10% of the addition to energy bills for households by 2020 will be attributable to investment in low carbon energy, and that that could easily be offset by greater energy efficiency in the home?
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, why are we to assume that greater energy efficiency in the home will only happen if we invest in renewable energy? We will be able to invest in greater efficiency in the home later anyway. The idea that we will get more efficiency in the home because we invest in renewable energy has never seemed very sensible. As for the cost of renewables towards energy prices, we can agree or disagree about the figures but it depends on your assumptions about what will happen to wholesale gas prices.
What have we achieved with the £2.9 billion we are spending this year on subsidies to renewable energy? We produced about 1% of our total energy from wind and solar this year. If you take total energy—including transport, fuel and everything else—wind provides only about 1% of the energy we use in this country. After accounting for the back-up—wind needs about 80% back-up to make sure that energy is available when it is not blowing—we have cut our carbon emissions through the use of wind and solar by probably less than 0.5%. That is surely a very small return on our investment.
All we are really doing is driving carbon emissions abroad, as has already been mentioned. Professor Dieter Helm, who has also been mentioned, said that carbon production in Britain fell by 15% while consumption rose by 20% between 1990 and 2005. We are consuming the carbon, it is just that somebody else is producing it. As Professor Helm also said, if we follow the leader of the Opposition’s proposal and decarbonise altogether by 2030, “we may actually make global emissions higher than they would otherwise have been” because of this effect. Unilateral decarbonisation is like building a flood bank at the end of your garden when your neighbour does not.
The noble Lord, Lord May, challenged me on the point about climate change. We have heard that the position on climate change has become more certain. Those who have come to that conclusion are obviously reading a different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policymakers than I am. The one I saw said that it is now 95% sure that more than half the warming since 1951 is man-made. That is a slightly weaker statement expressed slightly more strongly than six years ago, and a statement about the past not the future.
In what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in its latest report about the future, you find more uncertainty than six years ago. Let me give nine separate examples of ways in which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has retreated to a slightly less alarming and less certain position than six years ago. First, it acknowledges the pause or standstill in temperature for the first time, which has taken place for either 15 or 17 years depending on whether you look at surface or satellite temperatures.
Secondly, it acknowledges for the first time since its report in 1990 that the medieval warm period was at least as warm as today on a global level and therefore that today’s temperatures are not unprecedented in the last thousand years. Thirdly, it acknowledges for the first time that Antarctic sea ice is slowly expanding not retreating, which was not predicted by its models. Fourthly, it acknowledges that 111 of its 114 models overstated warming in the last 15 years.
Fifthly, it acknowledges that the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is lower than it was six years ago. It says that it cannot now give a central estimate, whereas six years ago it gave a best estimate. Why can it not do that? The average of 16 separate estimates of that quantity made by empirical studies since 2011 is 60% cooler than the ECS that was assumed in the IPCC models. The noble Lord, Lord May, says that it is important to make a calculation of how much carbon we must produce by the middle of the century, but that depends upon your estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity. If it turns out that it is as low as the range is now suggesting, and as the latest studies suggest, that changes the calculation entirely.
The sixth thing that the IPCC acknowledges is that transient climate response is lower. That is the more immediate policy-relevant number because it tells you how much warming actually happens by a particular point in the future rather than what takes a lot longer later. Seventhly, it acknowledges that sea-level rise, which is definitely happening, is lower than some authorities, such as Professor Rahmstorf, have tried to persuade us that it is. Eighthly, it says, using the words “very unlikely”, which it specifically defines in statistical terms, that a collapse of the Gulf Stream is very unlikely, that a collapse of the west Antarctic or Greenland ice sheet is very unlikely and that an explosion of methane from clathrates on the ocean floor is very unlikely.
Ninthly, it says that it has low confidence in a number of tipping points that were previously thought to be possible concerns: the collapse of tropical forests, of boreal forests and of the monsoon, an explosion of greenhouse gases from the Arctic permafrost and an increase in megadroughts. It says that it has low confidence in these things. These are major retreats. We know that the harm being done by climate change will arrive considerably later in this century. There is the harm being done now by decarbonisation policies: biofuels driving people into poverty, and wind costs driving up people’s energy bills and causing them trouble in heating their homes.
These problems are arising now and we are being dangerously close to callous if with higher energy costs we tighten even more the noose around the necks of needy people in this country. This week the Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hannelore Kraft of the Social Democratic Party in Germany, has said that she thinks we should slow down this transition to renewables until we are more certain.
Lord Gardiner of Kimble (Con)
My Lords, I hope that the noble Lord will understand that we are at Report stage. I am conscious of the rules at this stage and if there are frequent interruptions it gets very difficult. We should try to keep the rules on these matters.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I will try to be brief. There has been no increase in sea surface temperatures over the past 10 years or so. The noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, says that shale gas does not provide an excuse to rethink this target, but the shale gas break-even price has come down dramatically in the United States as a result of increased experience of how to develop shale gas. Fields that were once thought to be break even at $6, $8 or $9 are now breaking even at $3, $4 or $5. Then if you add gas liquids—some fields have gas liquids and they are much higher value—and so on, it is very possible that we will see shale gas have the same effect on prices in this country as we saw in the United States.
I feel we must retain flexibility to research low-carbon technologies, to explore the possibilities of solar, carbon capture and storage and other forms of nuclear and, above all, to see what shale gas can do, but we should not lock in an expensive target now.
Lord Smith of Finsbury (Non-Afl)
My Lords, I support the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, and Amendments 1 and 2. At the heart of this debate is the question of why decarbonisation is important. As the noble Lord, Lord Teverson, said, it sits at the heart of the Government’s Bill, and the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, seeks to strengthen the position of decarbonisation at the heart of energy policy. The noble Viscount, Lord Ridley, told us that climate change is happening more slowly than expected. He justified that with some somewhat selective pickings from the fifth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The reality of that report is that its overwhelming conclusion is that the atmosphere and the oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and are continuing to diminish, sea level has risen and each of the past three decades has been successively warmer at the earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
Climate change is real and is happening. I wish the noble Viscount were right. I wish that it was not happening. I take no pleasure whatever in the fact that it is.
Viscount Ridley
My Lords, did I say that it was not happening? Everything that the noble Lord, Lord Smith, has said about what has happened, I completely accept, but it does not say that it is happening faster than expected.
Lord Smith of Finsbury
It is rather good to have on the record the noble Viscount’s opinion that climate change has been happening, and I have to say to him that it is a process that it is continuing.
I am the chairman of the Environment Agency in England. We are already seeing increasingly erratic and extreme patterns of weather here in the UK. Last year, in 2012, the first three months saw us in near drought. That was followed by 11 serious flooding events during the summer and autumn. In March, the River South Tyne was flowing at 28% of its average flow for that time of year; by June, two months later, it was running at 408% of its average flow for that time of year. I cannot say that the erratic weather patterns that we are now increasingly seeing in the UK are directly attributable to climate change, but I can say that this is precisely the sort of effect that climate science tells us we are going to see an awful lot more of over coming decades unless we do something serious about decarbonisation.
It looks as if we are heading for at least a 2 degree rise in global temperatures, and probably more, and the consequences of that for flooding, water supplies, agriculture, movement of population and human health are incalculable. Therefore, it is important for all of us to do what we can to take carbon out of our activities. Decarbonising energy production over the next 20 years is not just a “nice to have”, a luxury, or something to be thrown aside the first moment that some flak appears; it is essential if we are going to have anything remotely resembling a coherent and sustainable energy policy in the future.
A decarbonisation target is not just important because of climate change; it is essential in order to give confidence and certainty to the burgeoning renewables and energy efficiency industries. Putting clear targets in place will stimulate innovation and enable long-term investment and planning to take place. Energy, perhaps more than any other field of government policy, needs long-term thinking and, if at all possible, cross-party thinking, too. We have to put the parameters in place and make the target clear but achievable, then the ideas, investment, work and economic benefits will flow. The amendment of my noble friend Lord Oxburgh seeks to do precisely these things and I fully support it.