Scotland: General Election and Constitutional Future

Virginia Crosbie Excerpts

Wednesday 17th March 2021 Commons Chamber

[Virginia Crosbie (Ynys Môn) (Con)]

I can understand why independence calls to the souls of some in our devolved nations. The Welsh have a word for it— “hiraeth”—but our experience with Brexit has shown us just how complex things can be when separating from a partner. The UK has far fewer co-dependencies with the EU than Scotland does with the rest of the UK, but even so, as I am sure the later debate will attest, our recent divorce has been complicated and at times painful.

With Scotland, we share a land border, a currency and a long history. Untangling that relationship is likely to be at least as fraught. Had Scotland voted for independence in 2014 and become part of the EU in its own right, the EU trade structure would have been in place for open trade with the rest of the UK, but the goalposts have changed. With the UK outside the EU, no such structure exists. An independent Scotland would need to negotiate a new trade deal with the rest of the UK, as well as with the EU and other countries globally. Yes, Scotland could apply for EU membership but there is no guarantee that it would be welcomed. Scotland’s deficit is twice the EU target and, with its ageing and rural population, its public spending is already £15 billion a year higher than its tax and North sea oil revenues.

If Scotland did vote for independence, what impact would that have on Scotland’s economy? First, consider that the majority of Scotland’s trade is with the UK. About 60% of its exports go to the other nations of the UK. Only around 20% go to the EU and the remainder go to the rest of the world. Then, consider tourism: the Scottish Government website describes tourism as a

“cornerstone of the Scottish Economy”,

accounting for 5% of gross value added and one in every 12 Scottish jobs. Some 80% of its tourism comes from the UK and, of the other 20%, many visitors arrive in England and visit Scotland as part of a UK tour.

There would of course be significant downsides for the rest of the UK, too. The Union would lose an important element of its rich cultural heritage. The UK imports over £60 billion in goods and services into Scotland, so if we put a border between Scotland and the rest of the UK, with possible visa and customs checks, controls, duties and taxes, and maybe a different currency as well—I will leave it to the House to work out whether that would put any of us in a better place.

I can understand why independence calls to some, but it is a romantic, idealised vision of independence. It is not grounded in practicality or realism. Independence simply increases the risks and uncertainty for our devolved nations, whereas a strong United Kingdom offers certainty and security for its citizens. As part of the UK, all our nations can pool and share their resources and strengths. We are stronger and more resilient as a Union, and I believe in one Union and one United Kingdom.