Leaving the EU: North-East Exports

Tom Blenkinsop Excerpts

Tuesday 25th October 2016 Westminster Hall

[Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) (Lab)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered the effect on exports from the North East of the UK leaving the EU.

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Hollobone.

We all agree that the British people’s decision on 23 June to leave the EU was the most profound decision to affect this country since the second world war. I, like many in the House, very much wanted the UK to stay part of the EU, but the country, including the north-east of England, voted otherwise. That decision must be implemented, but as my hon. and learned Friend the Member for Holborn and St Pancras (Keir Starmer) has pointed out, the country voted on the principle of leaving, not on the terms. The detail is therefore important.

The referendum result has created much uncertainty about the UK economy’s long-term prospects, not just internationally but in many boardrooms around the country. I wonder how soon it will be before that uncertainty is felt in households in communities from south-east England to Scotland, from County Durham to Northern Ireland, and from Wales to East Anglia, and how soon it will be before that uncertainty spreads from the boardroom to the shop floor.

I want to use this debate to explain the importance of the European single market to the north-east of England, to raise several issues and to probe the Minister on what he and the Government think is the best option for the north-east of England in a post-Brexit Britain. I know the Minister shares the view that remain was the best option for the British people, but in our own ways we have both taken on responsibility for delivering the best deal for the UK under the circumstances, unlike the former—or perhaps the current—leader of the UK Independence party, Nigel Farage, who abandoned the field of play once he got the referendum outcome he wanted. Like all populists, he was ready to pick up the megaphone to let us know what he thought to be wrong, but when the argument went in his favour he was not prepared to hang around and take responsibility for putting right those perceived wrongs.

The Minister has the unenviable task of securing the best deal for Britain. Since he wanted to remain in the EU and the single market, how is he going to convince his colleagues that maintaining access to the single market is the best option? Furthermore, how are the Government going to implement all the promises made by the leave campaign, of which he now has ownership?

“Let’s give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week”—

so said Vote Leave’s website. That slogan was emblazoned on the side of the campaign’s battle bus. Vote Leave committed to “hundreds of new schools” in a campaign video on YouTube, and to the abolition of prescription charges. According to a Vote Leave press release from 14 June:

“There is more than enough money to ensure that those who now get funding from the EU...will continue to do so”.

There was a promise of new roads and the expansion of regional airports, and the right hon. Member for Surrey Heath (Michael Gove) even said in a Vote Leave press release from 19 April that there would be enough money for 14 Astute-class submarines. There was to be money for pothole repairs and tax cuts, and wages would be higher and fuel bills cheaper—no doubt, Brexit would be a land of milk and honey, where the sun shines and everyone lives happily ever after. The Minister is on record, in his blog, as saying:

“There was no manifesto for ‘out’”—

but yes, there was, and the people voted for it.

For the people of north-east England, we must get Brexit right, because although my constituents may have voted to leave the EU, I do not believe that they voted to be poorer, to put their jobs at risk or to see their region fall further behind. If I were them, I can imagine how disappointed and betrayed I would feel if, on top of all the uncertainty, which was not there before, all the promises made by those who supported the leave campaign were not met. That disappointment would be deepened by the fact that so many of those who made the pledges not only now sit on the Front Bench, but will sit around the negotiating table to negotiate our exit. The Minister and the Government have a duty to inform the British people of how those promises are to be fulfilled—the Minister might make a start today. If they cannot be fulfilled, perhaps the Minister will be straight with the British people and say so.

The EU single market is essential to the north-east of England: 58% of the region’s trade is with the EU, which is a full 10% higher than the national average; it is the only region that exports more than it imports; more than 100,000 jobs in the region rely on trade with the continent; and, over the past five years, almost 90 European investment projects have created or safeguarded more than 6,000 jobs, and £1.1 billion in inward foreign investment has come to the north-east from EU members.

According to the North East England chamber of commerce and a report by Ernst and Young, the north-east has seen the second highest increase in foreign direct investment—sitting just behind the north-west—with a substantial 83% increase on last year in FDI projects. An EY survey of investors about the link between the EU referendum and FDI asked how important access to the single market was, and 79% of investors cited access to the single market as a key feature of the UK’s attractiveness, a higher figure than last year’s. The same survey found that 52% of investors thought that a “slight change” in access to the single market would affect the attractiveness of the UK as a destination for business; in the event of a “significantly less favourable” change, the figure rose to 55%.

The North East England chamber of commerce has major concerns about future trade deals. Membership of the single market has brought significant benefits to the north-east of England, attracting business and creating jobs. The chamber stated in its EU referendum briefing paper of July 2016:

“There are also major implications for relationships with overseas markets where existing trade deals have been negotiated by the EU and for the future of trade documentation needed by businesses. Due to the complexities of these issues, there is significant concern among businesses about the UK Government’s capacity to address these issues in the required timescale before Britain exits the EU. Many of our members are also concerned about the effective flow of information so businesses are aware of any changes they need to make to their practices. Assurances about this are vital.”

What assurances about that will the Minister give to companies in the north-east?

In the same briefing paper, the chamber also stated:

“There is also....the hope and expectation that the anticipated benefits of Brexit in being able to conclude trade deals more quickly around the world will be realised. The new department headed by the International Trade Secretary...should aim to quickly set out its plans in this regard so businesses can see that Government is seeking to get beyond a damage limitation exercise to exploit new opportunities.”

I offer this opportunity to the Minister to lay out those plans. Business needs certainty, and that would seem to be the one thing in short supply at present.

As I am sure the Minister is aware, Japanese investment is key to the north-east of England. There are about 50 Japanese companies in the region, including Hitachi in my constituency. It provides almost 1,000 direct jobs, with many more in a growing supply chain. Nissan provides 7,000 direct jobs and 30,000 in the supply chain. With 300 automotive companies in the region, the car industry in the north-east produces £11 billion in sales and is responsible for more than £5 billion in exports.

[Tom Blenkinsop (Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland) (Lab)]

Nissan is the UK steel industry’s largest customer in the automotive trade, purchasing most of its steel from Tata in the UK, largely from Port Talbot and the strip-producing sites. What does my hon. Friend think about the potential barriers to trade if energy imported from the European Union via interconnectors were to carry a World Trade Organisation tariff for the United Kingdom in future? What will happen to large manufacturing plants and energy-intensive industries when they face larger tariffs on energy imports?

[Phil Wilson]

My hon. Friend makes an important point. So much of Brexit has to be sorted out, and I do not know the answers, but I hope that the Minister will enlighten us. There will, however, be major consequences for industry in this country, but especially in the north-east, where a lot of our manufacturing industry is. It employs a lot of people there and provides skills that we need to revitalise the economy in the region.

Throughout the referendum campaign, I was clear about saying that if Britain voted to leave, companies such as Hitachi and Nissan would not immediately cease production, close their factory doors and ship out to the EU. I still believe, though, that if we are not part of the EU single market, the potential for long-term growth must be called into question. Furthermore, what growth there might be could come at a cost to the Exchequer.

Following Britain’s decision to withdraw from the EU, Nissan’s chief executive, Carlos Ghosn, indicated that the company might halt further investment in its Sunderland plant unless the Government agreed to compensate it for any adverse financial impact of Brexit. At the Paris motor show in August, Ghosn warned that

“important investment decisions will not be made in the dark…If I need to make an investment in the next few months and I can’t wait until the end of Brexit, then I have to make a deal with the UK Government”,

and he suggested:

“You can have commitments of compensation in case you have something negative. If there are tax barriers being established on cars, you have to have a commitment for car-makers who export to Europe that there is some kind of compensation.”

Earlier this month, the Prime Minister met with Mr Ghosn to explore what assurances Nissan was seeking. The Financial Times reported that the meeting came ahead of Nissan’s decision on whether to build its new Qashqai SUV in Sunderland, a decision that might be taken as early as November. After the meeting, Mr Ghosn said:

“Since Mrs May’s appointment, we have maintained a clear dialogue with the UK Government during this challenging time”,

and he stressed:

“We want to ensure that this high-performing, high-employment factory remains competitive globally and continues to deliver for our business and for Britain.”

He added:

“Following our productive meeting, I am confident the government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business. I look forward to continued positive collaboration between Nissan and the UK Government.”

On the face of it, those are nothing more than warm words, but last weekend The Sun newspaper reported that Nissan is to announce that it will build the Qashqai SUV at its Sunderland plant—I hope so—and that an announcement is imminent. If the new Qashqai model is to be built in the north-east, however, what kind of compensation is Mr Ghosn anticipating? To keep Nissan in Sunderland, what price will Britain need to pay that we did not need to pay before? Don’t get me wrong, I want Nissan to stay, but I believe that it is incumbent on the Government to tell us what the cost is. It seems to me that the much vaunted windfall to the Exchequer from not being in the EU will not be available to spend on the NHS—if ever it was—because it will be needed to subsidise industry in a way we have not needed to before.

The Japanese Government are so concerned about Brexit that they published a 15-page document at the time of the G20 summit in China, pointing out:

“In light of the fact that a number of Japanese businesses, invited by the Government in some cases, have invested actively to the UK, which was seen to be a gateway to Europe, and have established value-chains across Europe, we strongly request that the UK will consider this fact seriously and respond in a responsible manner to minimise any harmful effects on these businesses.”

The document also laid out several requests, such as maintenance of

“the current tariff rates and customs clearance procedures”

and the introduction of

“provisions for cumulative rules of origin”.

The Japanese Government gave those two key reasons, and others, for the UK remaining part of the single market and the customs union. I fear the consequences of all this uncertainty for the continued growth of existing foreign direct investment in the north-east of England and the region’s ability to attract FDI in the future. The Japanese, like many businesses in the north-east, have asked for transparency in the Brexit negotiations. It is not only Westminster politicians who are asking for transparency; business and the wider world are too.

The Minister wrote in a blog post on his website on 25 October 2011:

“A vote to come out of the EU would be to try to reverse nearly four decades of economic development…I am convinced that the advantages of membership outweigh the disadvantages.”

I agree. He said to the BBC just last month that

“we must…try to achieve…zero-tariff access to this market of 500 million people in the EU”.

Again, I agree, but it seems to me that in so doing, the Government are setting out in a direction that the Conservative party accused the Labour Government of taking back in the 1970s and upon which it frowned at the time.

The Prime Minister said in her closing speech at the Conservative party conference:

“It’s not about picking winners, propping up failing industries, or bringing old companies back from the dead. It’s about identifying the industries that are of strategic value to our economy and supporting and promoting them”.

That sounds very much like picking winners to me. We should support our industry and develop an innovative industrial strategy, but don’t let’s write off whole industries. Millions of people may have voted for Brexit, but let us not forget the millions who did not. I am of the view that the Brexit negotiations will be complicated and uncertainty will reign for some time to come.

We know that the Minister’s preferred option is access to the single market—if not membership—but in what form? The existing model? The Swiss model? Will we stay part of the customs union? Does he agree with the report by his own Government that said that leaving the customs union could cause a 4.5% fall in British GDP and a reduction in foreign direct investment of as much as £9 billion, with trading falling by as much as 15.6%?

Brexit is the defining issue of our time, and it is more than apparent that the Government did not have any contingency planning in place to deal with the immensity of the task ahead, so I doubt very much that this will be the last Westminster Hall debate on how the issue affects the north-east of England, let alone the rest of the country. The future prosperity of the north-east of England, and indeed our nation, depends on getting this right. In answering the questions that I have asked today, the Minister will have the opportunity to start to allay fears, provide certainty, promote confidence and offer optimism, and to show vision and belief in our country. We must have the right to stand tall in the world while acknowledging our responsibility to others. I look forward to his response.