(2 weeks, 2 days ago)
Public Bill CommitteesQ
Professor Linda Bauld: That is an interesting question. My colleagues at UCL did a study that looked at what happened when they raised the age of sale from 16 to 18. I have to be honest with you: at the time, the tobacco control research community would not have pointed to that as the most ambitious measure that you could do; we did not think that changing the age by just two years would make an impact. But, from the data, it actually created 1.3 million more people who could not be sold cigarettes. We also know that, at the same time, due to the action on illicit tobacco, which is really important, the amount of illicit tobacco consumed fell by about 25%. So it is about those two things in partnership: tackling illicit, which of course is really important, and changing the age of sale.
The promise of the smoke-free generation is more ambitious, however. Rather than just raising the age of sale by a few years, we are gradually changing it over time. That protects future generations, because we do not have the big jump to being suddenly ineligible to be sold cigarettes. To go back to the evidence in the annexe to the legislation, which shows the modelling done by my colleagues for the Department of Health and Social Care, it looks pretty robust. I think that this will have a big impact over time. I hope that is helpful.
Q
Professor Linda Bauld: That is interesting. I think a similar question was asked earlier. I do not think that history bears that out. Often, a concern is that if we take action on one product, we displace youth use to other products. With action that we have taken on smoking over the years, we have not seen a dramatic increase in, for example, youth alcohol use or use of other legal products. There are still major issues with young people consuming alcohol but, actually, the number of young people drinking at harmful levels has reduced in recent years, at the same time as tobacco measures have been introduced over time.
I do not think that we will see a big displacement to other substances by introducing this set of measures, but we need to keep our eye on getting that balance right. In terms of the other products that we are concerned young people might use—obviously, there are illegal drugs, which we have separate legislation on, and we need to keep an eye on alcohol control for young people—all those things need to happen together. But I have not seen any evidence to suggest that taking this kind of action will cause some other public health issue that we need to be overly concerned about.
Q
Dr Laura Squire: With the current notification scheme, we have the resource that we need to do that. As the registration scheme becomes more detailed and demanding, and as there is more in it, I would expect that to require more resource. That is something that we need to continue talking to the Department of Health about as it develops the policy, and we will do that.
Also, as part of that, the impact on us will depend on not only what is in the regulation but who does it. I know that there are conversations about where it is best done, and there are registrations for other consumer products that already exist, so there are conversations happening with the Office of Product Safety and Standards. It is important to learn from those sorts of schemes that are already happening. Where that goes is a policy decision for the Department of Health and Social Care, and we will continue to work with it. I think it would also involve being clear about what resources we might need if we carry on and need more. At the moment, we have what we need to do what we need to do under the current law.
Q
Dr Laura Squire: They would do if it was a licensed product.