Prime Minister (Replacement) Bill

Steve Baker Excerpts

Friday 29th November 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr Peter Bone (Wellingborough) (Con)]

I beg to move, That the Bill be now read a Second time.

I am grateful to Her Majesty for her consent.

I clarify that we will not be debating the merits of Mrs Bone replacing the right hon. Member for Witney (Mr Cameron), as the name of my Bill might suggest, but rather the lack of clear succession should the Prime Minister become temporarily, or permanently, incapacitated to perform his duties.

I have asked on a number of occasions what procedure is in place should the Prime Minister be unable to perform his duties. Time and again, on each occasion Ministers have failed to give a substantive response, and I have been amazed at the number of different ways Ministers have dodged, ducked and dived around the question. Responses have ranged from the simply unhelpful reply from the right hon. and learned Member for Camberwell and Peckham (Ms Harman) that

“the Prime Minister is not incapacitated,”—[Official Report, 19 July 2007; Vol. 463, c. 446.]

to the Foreign Secretary’s positively clandestine explanation that

“we do not consider it appropriate to talk about these plans in public”—[Official Report, 17 January 2012; Vol. 538, c. 597.]

[Steve Baker (Wycombe) (Con)]

Has my hon. Friend inquired what has happened in the past?

[Mr Bone]

That is a good point, but I am looking to the future rather than the past as I am a very modern Conservative.

I am not in the habit of subscribing to conspiracy theories—although I do think there was somebody on the grassy knoll—but there is something strange about the Government’s refusal to state their position on the matter. Could it be that the admission that the right hon. Member for Sheffield, Hallam (Mr Clegg) is next in line to No. 10 is so scary that it would be a breach of national security should it become public knowledge?

In the terrible event of an airstrike on No. 10, we need to know instantly who would be responsible for commissioning a counter-attack. More to the point, we need the potential perpetrators of such an attack to know that we would instantly have the capability to take such decisions. It is preposterous for us to think that there would be time, or indeed the need, for a Cabinet meeting to be called to decide who is in charge. There simply would not be time because the military would need a decision as soon as possible on what action to take. It seems common sense that, in such an event, there should be a predetermined line of succession, as there is in the United States of America.

In a majority Government, there would be a clear mandate for the Deputy Prime Minister to take over, as there was when John Prescott was Tony Blair’s deputy. The same cannot be said of the right hon. Member for Sheffield, Hallam, replacing my right hon. Friend the Member for Witney. Surely it is not fitting for the leader of a party that holds less than 10% of the seats in the House of Commons, and maintains a lower approval rating than the UK Independence party, to be positioned to take over from the Prime Minister in a national emergency.

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[Mr Bone]

Madam Deputy Speaker, I hope that none of these events takes place. My comments, of course, were entirely about the Prime Minister and which elected person should replace him.

At a time when strong leadership would be more important than ever, the last thing we should be doing is having a debate to decide who is in charge. We need a clear line of succession, and we need it now. In the United States, if the President is killed, there is a list of succession of 18 different office holders. It starts with the Vice-President; then comes the Speaker of the House. It goes all the way down to the Secretary of Veterans Affairs, so even if there is a mass terrorist attack on the American leadership, it will always be clear who is in charge. That person will immediately take over responsibility for the nuclear deterrent and will be able, if necessary, to order retaliatory action. I apologise, Madam Deputy Speaker, but these things have to be said: if a civilian aircraft was deliberately crashed on the White House, killing the President, and other civilian aircraft were heading towards Congress, it would be clear whose decision it would be whether those aircraft should be shot down.

In the United Kingdom, we have no idea who would take over if the Prime Minister were killed. Would it be the Deputy Prime Minister, the Defence Secretary or the Cabinet Secretary? The answer is not clear. It might be an elected person. It might be the Defence Secretary, or it might be the Leader of the House. It might be the Cabinet Secretary. It might be the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. It might be the senior representative of the BBC; after all, the BBC thinks that it runs the country.

[Steve Baker (Wycombe) (Con)]

My hon. Friend is raising some extremely serious issues, and I think that we may be mixing up a number of the functions of government. I visited RAF Coningsby recently to talk to people who were operating on quick reaction alert, and I know that when it comes to that particularly difficult and painful decision relating to airliners—which is surely one of the most unimaginably difficult decisions that a politician might have to make—there are clear and robust procedures in place, and a politician would be the decision maker at all times. I do not think that there is any question that this country always has a political decision maker in relation to our air defence.

[Mr Bone]

I am grateful for my hon. Friend’s intervention, but I invite him to intervene again, because I am not sure whether he was saying that the ultimate decision was always political, or that the action could be taken without a political decision.

[Steve Baker]

What I am saying is that a senior politician would always be involved in any such decision in the circumstances that my hon. Friend has described. I am not sure how much further I can go in terms of engagement, but I am absolutely clear about the fact that there is always a politician in that chain, and everyone involved knows who it is.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dawn Primarolo)]

Order. I must make it clear to the hon. Gentleman and other Members that we are not discussing emergency powers or exceptional circumstances. The purpose of the Bill is to establish the succession that would operate should the Prime Minister be incapacitated. I should like us not to range extensively over events which may be theoretical or real, and which may or may not happen in the United Kingdom to any Member of the House of Commons.

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[Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough) (Con)]

I have enormous respect for my hon. Friend the Member for Wellingborough (Mr Bone) and think that he is perfectly entitled to raise these sorts of issues, but I must confess that I have severe doubts about the Bill. If one looks back over history, one must come to the conclusion that it is wrong in our system, in which we do not have a written constitution, to lay down rules. It is much better to rely on people’s good judgment. That is what our system is based on.

I can illustrate that argument by referring to the events of May 1940, when Neville Chamberlain ceased to be Prime Minister. Although he resigned voluntarily following a vote in the House of Commons in which his majority was severely reduced, I cannot help noticing that, according to the list set out in the Bill, the next person in line to succeed him in the event of his having become incapacitated, after the Deputy Prime Minister, would have been the Home Secretary.

Just imagine what would have happened in May 1940 if such a Bill had been passed and if Neville Chamberlain had sadly passed away or become incapacitated. It would not have been Winston Churchill, the saviour of the nation, who took over, but the Home Secretary. For the moment, I cannot remember who that was. My hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg), who has an encyclopaedic knowledge of these matters, probably remembers. [Interruption.] I think that it was Lord Anderson—it has come back to me—of the Anderson shelter fame. Certainly he was not the charismatic leader who saved the nation. Any student of history knows that it was touch and go whether Winston Churchill would take over. Lord Halifax was the favourite, both of the King and of the outgoing Prime Minister.

Why do I make those points? We do not want a written constitution in which rules are laid down. We want people to use their good sense. That is what the British parliamentary system is all about. I do not think that it is particularly instructive to follow precedents from other countries. My hon. Friend mentioned the American constitution, which is an entirely different state of affairs. The President of the United States is the Head of State and commander-in-chief, elected by all the people, so there has to be a procedure that lays down exactly what happens if he dies or becomes incapacitated. It is not a parliamentary system.

The same goes for the French system, in which, unlike in the American system, if the President dies—President Pompidou died in office—there is an immediate presidential election. The Americans, in their wisdom, determined that the Vice-President should take over automatically, and that there should be an election for a new President, but that is a matter for them and their constitution.

Our system is completely different. If the Prime Minister resigns, as Margaret Thatcher did in more recent times, or sadly passes away or becomes incapacitated, the most senior member of the Cabinet would take over as acting Prime Minister. In the present Cabinet—I will hazard a guess—that is probably the Foreign Secretary. Nobody doubts that he could perfectly adequately, and indeed immediately, take over all the reins of government. There would be a rapid election among the majority parliamentary party, and the person best fitted to become Prime Minister would be elected by his colleagues. They would elect him not on the basis of some written constitution or some arbitrary list of the sort my hon. Friend the Member for Wellingborough has devised, but on the basis of their good sense. That is what our system is about.

[Steve Baker]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the crucial test is whether such a person can command a majority in this House? That is easily tested by the introduction of a confidence motion, and could be very quickly resolved by the House of Commons.

[Sir Edward Leigh]

My hon. Friend is of course right to make that point. In our system, which is parliamentary as opposed to presidential, the whole point is that, as in the past, the Head of State—the Queen—appoints as Prime Minister someone who can command a majority in the House, which is what being Prime Minister is all about. There is no mystery about the job: it goes to the person best equipped to command a majority in the House, and the best way to determine who can do that is based not on some arbitrary list laid down, in all his wisdom, by my hon. Friend the Member for Wellingborough, but on the good sense of those who sit in this Chamber.

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[Steve Baker (Wycombe) (Con)]

My hon. Friend the Member for Wellingborough (Mr Bone) and I agree more often than we disagree, but I certainly oppose him on this occasion. He has introduced a Bill that he says is a serious one, and we must take his comments at face value. I felt moved to speak only when it became clear that the Bill would be reached this afternoon, and I am a little disappointed that he did not look at experience.

My hon. Friend raised several red herrings, particularly in relation to the Crown and national security. If an urgent matter comes up while the Prime Minister is very temporarily indisposed, I am absolutely confident that our armed forces and the Home Office have appropriate arrangements in place to ensure that any immediate decisions are dealt with properly, and I have already said what some of them are.

[Bob Stewart]

It is obvious to me that if there were a national crisis, the Defence Council would meet immediately under the Secretary of State for Defence and, if necessary, decisions would be made by that Secretary of State. I think that such procedures are in place.

[Steve Baker]

I am grateful for my hon. Friend’s remarks, but I am conscious of your earlier instruction, Madam Deputy Speaker.

It seems to me that my hon. Friend the Member for Wellingborough is being quite harsh on the party that usually sits below the Aisle. That party is perfectly capable of producing first-class statesmen. It has done so in the past and I am certain that it could do so again. I would like to see a true liberal at the Dispatch Box, but I am sure that our party could produce a true liberal. However, that is a subject for another day. We should be a bit more generous to our friends below the Aisle.

We should also be more generous to the House. I am sure that if the House was faced with a choice on whether to express confidence in a Member who did not enjoy the support of these Benches, we would simply vote no and other arrangements would be made through the usual channels.

I am disappointed that the Bill has been introduced. It raises some interesting questions, but many of them are red herrings. The truth is that if the Prime Minister is indisposed in the medium to long term, we have perfectly robust arrangements for selecting a successor. I hope that my hon. Friend will not take the Bill much further.