Compulsory Jobs Guarantee

Debate between Stephen Timms and Alan Reid

Wednesday 11th February 2015 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Timms]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right about the ambition, and of course this scheme will be an enormous step towards tackling the scourge of long-term unemployment. To build a strong and stable recovery, and a fairer and more united country, we need to make sure, as he says, that everyone gets to play their part, that we harness its talents and fulfil the potential of all, and that everybody knows they have a stake in our country’s future.

We have seen some welcome recent falls in the headline rate of unemployment, from the peaks reached after this Government choked off the recovery they had inherited in 2010. More people in work is always good news, which is why we repeatedly urged the Government to do more to stop the soaring unemployment they presided over after the general election.

[Mr Alan Reid (Argyll and Bute) (LD)]

I draw the right hon. Gentleman’s attention to the fact that in my constituency unemployment rose by 385 under his Government, whereas it has fallen under this Government by 763. His Government failed, not this one.

[Stephen Timms]

But long-term unemployment is higher in the hon. Gentleman’s constituency now than it was at the time of the last election. That is the legacy of the three years of almost no growth in the economy following the general election, which we now need to address. Let me say to him and to other Government Members that self-congratulation on what has happened in recent months is dangerously complacent about underlying problems in the labour market and utterly out of touch with the impact such problems have on people who are desperate to work and to earn their way out of the cost of living crisis they are facing. People are deeply concerned about the prospects for their children and the grandchildren. Those are the points we now need to address.

Pensions and Benefits Uprating

Debate between Stephen Timms and Alan Reid

Tuesday 25th February 2014 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Timms]

I think the hon. Gentleman is referring to the change made by Mrs Thatcher when she was Prime Minister, and he makes an entirely fair point. However, the point I am putting to him is that he and his party, particularly the Minister, frequently present the triple lock to us as somehow being extraordinarily generous, whereas in practice it has provided less than the formula he has just criticised—the one introduced by the former Conservative Prime Minister. If that formula had continued after the 2010 general election, the state pension amount we would be debating today would be more than £1 a week more than the figure in this order.

[Mr Alan Reid (Argyll and Bute) (LD)]

The right hon. Gentleman will accept that the formula introduced by Mrs Thatcher was continued throughout the whole term of the previous Labour Government. As the economy is recovering, thanks to the coalition’s successful economic policies, will he not accept that linking pensions to earnings will mean higher pensions for people in the long run?

[Stephen Timms]

I certainly hope that that is the case, but in the short run, in the period since the general election, we are seeing a lower value for the basic state pension than if Mrs Thatcher’s formula had stayed in place. That point is not widely understood. I am sure that the hon. Gentleman understands it, but I want to put it on the record so that people are aware of the fact that the method that is currently in place has in fact delivered a lower value for the basic state pension than if Mrs Thatcher’s formula had continued to be used.

[Mr Reid]

Had the right hon. Gentleman’s party been in power, would the pension increases over the past three years have been at CPI or RPI?

[Stephen Timms]

If the arrangements in place before the last election had been maintained, the increases would have been at RPI. If they had been at RPI, we would be debating today a higher value for the basic state pension than the one in the order in front of us.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stephen Timms]

Sadly, I am not in the happy position that the Minister describes. I hope that I will be before very long, in which case I will gladly give him the answer that he seeks. However, I am not in that position today.

[Mr Reid]

If the right hon. Gentleman hopes to be in power some time in the future, will he tell us the formula that he would use for the long term?

[Stephen Timms]

I can well understand why the hon. Gentleman wants to know the answer to that question. If, as we have heard, he and his party are to be involved in the next Government, it will be in coalition with a party other than the one that they are in coalition with at the moment. I am afraid that he will have to be a little patient to get an answer to his question. None the less, I well understand why he wants to know the answer.

The Chancellor proudly told us in his autumn statement last year that the increase formula for regulated train fares was changing from RPI plus 1% to RPI plus 0%, which means that regulated rail fares would increase by no more than July 2013’s RPI of 3.1% . What is not clear is why the Government apply RPI in that case and CPI in this. The answer, as far as one can make sense of all this, is that the Government use CPI when it is useful to have a small number and RPI when they want a big number. That appears to be the principle that has been adopted. The result is that pensioners will see their state pension increased in line with CPI, but their train fares by RPI.

Part 7 of the order in front of us relates to universal credit. As the House well knows, this is becoming an appalling fiasco. The Secretary of State told us yesterday that he expected 6,000 people to be in receipt of universal credit during the current pathfinder. It was not clear by what date he expected that figure to be achieved. Will the Minister let us know? He will recall that I have been warning since November 2010 that the time scale announced by Ministers for universal credit was unachievable. Unfortunately I have been proved right. Indeed, the position is now a good deal worse than I feared when I wrote to the Secretary of State in November 2010. There is now a real danger that the entire project could collapse.

As I pointed out at the time, the time scale for the IT was always unachievable. That goes back to the July 2010 Green Paper, which included the absurd claim that the IT for universal credit would not amount to a major IT system. Replacing the whole of the benefit information technology can hardly amount to anything other than a major IT system. Ministers have failed to deliver any IT system. It now appears that, while they continue to develop late the IT system they started out with, they are also going to develop a second universal credit IT system, in the hope that they can get it right second time around. Goodness knows how many hundreds of millions of pounds that is going to end up costing. It is clear that the next Government will have a major job on their hands to salvage universal credit after May next year if, as all of us must hope, it can be salvaged.

Pensions and Social Security

Debate between Stephen Timms and Alan Reid

Wednesday 13th February 2013 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)]

I thank the Minister for his explanation of the measures, albeit that it was brief. He reminded us, correctly, that this is the third year since the announcement of the triple lock for the basic state pension. There is absolutely no doubt that the triple lock has been a great success as a rhetorical device. The term has entered the lexicon, and I note that the Minister’s right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport has gone one better and announced a quadruple lock for the Bill that she recently placed before the House.

While in rhetorical terms the triple lock has undoubtedly been successful, I am afraid that the reality has been rather different, because once again the increase in the state pension is less this year than it would have been if the uprating method previously used was still in place. In retail prices index terms, for the second year this is a real-terms cut in the value of the basic state pension, as well as—I made this point earlier—a real-terms cut in today’s consumer prices index rate.

[Mr Reid]

Will the right hon. Gentleman clarify what his party’s current policy is on uprating? Should it be CPI or RPI?

[Stephen Timms]

We have made it plain, in all the three uprating debates since the election, that in our view there would have been a case for a temporary move from RPI to CPI uprating, as a contribution to reducing the deficit. Unfortunately, the Government decided that this should not be a temporary move, but a permanent move—or so we thought. Now it turns out that they are not even uprating in line with CPI for a large part of the benefits, but the position is the one that I have set out.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stephen Timms]

The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right, but what was clear from that contributor was the despair at the prospect of a rise of only 70p a week. At a time when inflation is running at more than 2% and is likely to increase, according to the Bank of England inflation report published today, that is a very alarming prospect indeed.

[Mr Reid]

The right hon. Gentleman is being generous in taking interventions. I have been sitting listening and wondering what the Labour party’s policy is. If my memory is correct, he said earlier that CPI was currently 2.7%. Will he tell the House by how much all these benefits would have been increased if a Labour Government were in power?

[Stephen Timms]

I answered that point earlier. I was hoping the hon. Gentleman was going to tell us why, after he attacked us a few moments ago for the 75p pension rise of many years ago, he is this evening supporting a 70p increase for people such as those who are dependent on employment and support allowance in the work-related activity group. If he explained the conflict between the two positions he has taken, I would be very grateful to him.

[Mr Reid]

I am sure the right hon. Gentleman will recall that I spoke in debate in support of an amendment to the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill to increase benefits in line with average earnings, and that is still my view. As he knows, the order is not amendable, so either we vote for the whole thing, including the triple lock for pensioners, or we vote against it, but my views are on the record.

[Stephen Timms]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for clarifying that he opposes what the Government are doing in this order.

I was talking about the impact on child poverty. We are expecting the revised projections from the Institute for Fiscal Studies ahead of the Budget. On the basis of the numbers that Ministers have reluctantly given us for the impact of this measure on child poverty, we will see a projected increase in child poverty of more than 500,000 by the expected date of the next election and 1 million by 2010. That is a shameful record indeed, undoing so many years of progress made in reducing child poverty by the previous Government, as my hon. Friend the Member for Walsall North (Mr Winnick) pointed out.

[Mr Reid]

I have put my views on the record, but the right hon. Gentleman has not answered the question I asked in my second intervention. What percentage increase does he think should be in the order this evening?

[Stephen Timms]

I will give the hon. Gentleman the answer I gave a few moments ago. We think there would have been a reasonable case for the Government to make a temporary change to the uprating methodology, from RPI—the previous methodology—to CPI, but unfortunately they did not do that. They came up with a proposal for a permanent change to the methodology, using CPI only, but now they are not even sticking to that and have reduced the figure further to 1%.

What if inflation rises sharply in the next few years? The Governor-designate of the Bank of England has suggested that there should be greater flexibility in the inflation target used by the Monetary Policy Committee. If inflation rises sharply, the consequences for working families—for strivers, struggling to get by at the moment and lumbered with a 1% rise hard-wired into law for next year and the following two years—do not bear thinking about. The Bank of England inflation report published today places a probability of 39% on inflation being over 3% before the end of this year. The fan chart shows possible figures of 5%. What would the consequences be for people who will see a 1% rise in their incomes for the next three years if inflation rose in that way?

Why are the Government doing this? Why have the siren voices won this year? It is because the Government’s economic policy has failed. Let us look at the three years covered by this order and the Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill. Compare the spending on unemployment benefits over those three years, which was predicted in the Budget last year, with the spending predicted in the autumn statement, just a few months later. The forecast spending on unemployment benefits over those three years went up, just between the Budget and the autumn statement, by the same amount that this order and the Bill will save over those three years. That is what is happening—the Government are clawing back the increase in unemployment benefits resulting from the failure of their policies from those who receive those benefits.