Transport Disruption (Winter 2010)

Simon Wright Excerpts

Thursday 1st December 2011 Westminster Hall

[Simon Wright (Norwich South) (LD)]

I am grateful for the opportunity to contribute to this debate. I congratulate the Select Committee on Transport on its report, which made numerous recommendations that many of us can support. I will speak briefly about the recommendations relating to better weather forecasting and the provision of improved warnings and travel information to drivers.

Achieving better medium and long-term forecasting would allow transport operators to plan better for problems ahead. We start in a good position. The Met Office is widely recognised as one of the best weather predictors in the world, providing accurate and reliable forecasts over various time scales. The Met Office relies increasingly on supercomputing to carry out its work. Developing capacity and capability is vital if it is to undertake more detailed forecasting in future.

The science is available now to predict weather better, but computing power is required to realise that science. In the past, meteorology applied to weather forecasting had the most cutting-edge computing power available. Today, that is no longer the case, but last winter showed us that it is still needed. Better computing power means that the science can be applied in ever higher degrees of resolution.

The investment required to ensure that the Met Office has adequate computing power is probably about £15 million a year. That is a little more than the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside (Mrs Ellman) suggested, but it is in the same ballpark. That investment would bring tangible benefits to the UK through improved short-range weather forecasts, long-term predictions and climate change projections.

The economic case for better forecasting is clear in relation to advance planning for extreme weather events affecting transport infrastructure, but other opportunities would arise from better flooding, snowstorm and high wind forecasting. The insurance industry, which has a strong presence in my constituency, also stands to benefit, given that two thirds of the world’s insured losses are related to natural events. Getting information out early means that businesses and communities can plan their activities and, in extreme events, possibly save lives, too. For long-term planning, the improvements in climate modelling from improved computing power would help significantly to inform investment in and delivery of major transport infrastructure projects. The Met Office’s public weather service at present is already worth more than £500 million to the economy. Increasing computing power would increase that even more. The sooner we invest in improving the supercomputing capacity of the Met Office, the sooner the UK will see the social and economic benefits.

I also want to say a few words about how best to communicate the impact of weather on driving conditions. At present, the Met Office-issued warnings are to be interpreted by drivers based on The Highway Code, with advice provided through the media by the Highways Agency and police. Last winter, drivers were advised at the height of the extreme weather conditions not to use the roads unless they had to. However, the interpretation by drivers of this advice is not clear. Do people who hear this message ask themselves, “Do I need to use my car to make this journey?”—the answer to which is often yes—or do they ask themselves, “Will there be serious implications to not making this journey at all?”, in which case the answer might be no?

It needs to be noted by Ministers that the Highways Agency research on driving behaviour in the winter before last shows that there had been little change in behaviour, despite the severity of the weather and the warnings issued. I strongly support the Committee’s recommendation for research into travel messages and how they influence behaviour, or fail to. The nature of language used, consistency of message and clarity for the recipients are all vital. If we are to tell people not to travel unless necessary, they need to be clear about what circumstances are and are not necessary. Perhaps advice needs to be more direct—“Do not travel unless there is a medical need to do so.” Perhaps different levels of alert could be devised, but let us support proper research into the issue so that we can know what makes a difference and what does not, rather than simply tweak existing practices that have not always delivered results.

Websites can also play an important role to help drivers plan their journeys. The Highways Agency’s Traffic England website, for example, provides real-time information on any problems on the motorway and A-road network. We need to make sure that drivers are aware of such tools, but we also need to recognise that at times of high demand some websites simply cannot cope. There were reports on some days of extreme weather last winter that traffic information websites were going down. For those drivers who are already out on the roads, it is vital that every effort is made to ensure that there is access to real, in-time information about the conditions on particular routes, and that drivers are able to adjust their routes as necessary, including before joining, and therefore adding to, existing problems on roads.

The AA’s survey of drivers has already been mentioned. It highlighted that drivers most wanted to be actively directed away from motorways if there were problems, and that they supported the use of the police to carry out that function. Roadside assistance could also be delivered through improved information and signage. I support efforts by the Highways Agency to develop the use of variable message signs and the expanded use of similar technologies across the road network where appropriate.

The ever-increasing availability and use of in-car technologies, such as sat-nav and smart phones, mean that new opportunities are available for providing real-time data specific to the interest of the individual driver following a specific route. Again, I think that the Highways Agency has an important role to play, working with providers of data-based services, to ensure that the data that it provides are as complete and as usable as they can be. There is even a role for the agency to help develop data applications of its own where needed.

We need to get weather forecasting as good as it can be, and we need people who are both planning journeys and driving on our roads to have access to the most up to date and accurate information about the weather and the condition of particular routes, and a system of warnings that are proven to be effective in changing driver behaviour when the conditions require it.