Leaving the EU: Economic Analysis

Debate between Sammy Wilson and Mel Stride

Wednesday 28th November 2018 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

What the Exchequer Secretary said at the Dispatch Box was right, and these reports deliver on exactly what he said. [Interruption.] If the hon. Gentleman gives me a moment, I will try to explain the answer to his charge. First, he sought a comparison with the baseline, as he termed it. The baseline comparison is there: it is the status quo—it is our arrangement with the EU27 that we have at the moment as a member of the EU. He then suggests that we did not make a comparison of the deal with that, but many Labour Members have said, “We don’t know exactly what the deal is and we want to know what it is now.” We do not know what the deal is because the political declaration—understandably, given that we have a negotiation now to go through—sets out the parameters and the spectrum of potential outcomes. Therefore, in order to fulfil the obligation the Exchequer Secretary made at this Dispatch Box, we have made just that comparison—a comparison of the Chequers arrangement, with a sensitivity around that, with the base case. That is exactly what the Exchequer Secretary said we would come forward with.

[Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)]

It is probably a gross understatement to say that economic forecasts have a very poor record. Since the referendum, all the forecasts have indicated that we should now be in the midst of a deep economic recession, yet the Government are boasting—and have real-time evidence—that we are riding the crest of the economic wave. In the Minister’s initial response, he said that this document was only about the potential fiscal impacts. He also said that it did not anticipate future policies, that it was based on a hypothetical free trade arrangement, and that some of the effects would be felt only in the long run, which of course is very uncertain. Can he understand why many of us in the House do not believe that it is worth the paper it is written on? This is certainly not the basis on which we should make a judgment on whether to vote for a flawed and deeply damaging deal.

[Mel Stride]

These papers put forward an honest appraisal of the estimated impacts of the different scenarios that we have been discussing this afternoon. The right hon. Gentleman makes a more general point about the inexactitude of economic forecasting, and he is right. We have a whole slew of variables, and we are looking at casting 15 years beyond the end of the implementation period—in other words, to 2034-35—which is quite a challenge. However, that is not the same as saying that we have not taken an honest and robust approach to this task. We have done that, and we have gone further. At the behest of the Treasury Committee, we have said that we will have an expert to go through all the details of the analysis, with access to all the officials across all the Departments involved, and that that information will in turn be made available.

Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Bill

Debate between Sammy Wilson and Mel Stride

2nd reading: House of Commons
Monday 8th January 2018 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

As the hon. Gentleman will know, the overseas territories are not part of the existing European customs union. However, they clearly need to be factored into our discussions and negotiations. We are, of course, close to our overseas territories and, indeed, our Crown dependencies, and we will ensure that the arrangements that would suit those overseas territories, as well as the United Kingdom, are taken into account when determining where we land this deal and the approach that we take.

[Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)]

Does the Minister recognise the advice given by HMRC’s permanent secretary that it believes that all of what is required is doable, and indeed that it is confident that we can have the movement of trade without significant disruption? Does he accept that if we want a frictionless border not just between Northern Ireland and southern Ireland, but between southern Ireland and its main market in the United Kingdom, it is not just a matter of this Bill and the resources being in place, because there needs to be much more co-operation than has been demonstrated so far by the Irish Government?

[Mel Stride]

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention, but I do not want to be tempted too far into the negotiations that pertain to matters between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. However, I will pick up on the point that he and other right hon. and hon. Members have made about readiness. The customs declaration services system that will need to be in place to handle around 300 million import and export transactions and declarations is well on target. It will start to go into use by this autumn and we firmly believe that it will be up and running by next January—well in time for the 29 March deadline.

Finance (No. 2) Bill

Debate between Sammy Wilson and Mel Stride

Committee: 1st sitting: House of Commons
Monday 18th December 2017 Commons Chamber

[Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)]

Does the Minister accept that, although it is important to increase the supply of houses, this measure has been welcomed by young people who see this as at least an opportunity for them to be able to get a deposit for a house and to have fewer up-front costs?

[Mel Stride]

My hon. Friend is entirely right. The point about up-front costs—alongside the costs of conveyancing, surveyors and so on—is a critical one, particularly for young people getting on to the housing ladder.

Finance Bill

Debate between Sammy Wilson and Mel Stride

Tuesday 12th September 2017 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

My hon. and learned Friend is absolutely right. In my meetings with the Federation of Small Businesses we have all concluded and agreed that this is the right direction. Indeed, we will make provision to ensure that such businesses, although they will not be mandated to become part of this new regime, will have the opportunity to do so voluntarily, and I believe that a very large number of companies will wish to take that opportunity.

[Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)]

I, too, welcome the fact that the Government have listened to many small businesses not just on their concerns about the extra work load but on how many businesses in rural areas have already been able to submit their accounts digitally. Now that there has been a delay, and regardless of whether there will be an extension, will the Minister assure us that the Treasury and HMRC will consider the lessons that can be learned? First, what additional work is required? Secondly, if broadband is not rolled out as quickly as intended, will that also be considered when making any final decisions about the roll-out of this scheme?

[Mel Stride]

My hon. Friend is a doughty champion of small businesses in Northern Ireland, and I value the comments and observations he has made to me during the decision-making process on this issue. On broadband roll-out in rural communities, the Bill has specific provisions to ensure that there is a digital exclusion test such that individuals or companies that genuinely cannot use the systems to the requisite degree can be exempted from the relevant provisions of the Bill.

We will not mandate other taxes until we are clear that the programme has been shown to work well. My hon. Friend the Member for North West Hampshire (Kit Malthouse) and my right hon. Friend the Member for Loughborough (Nicky Morgan) made some important points on that matter in last week’s debate, and I can confirm that, once we are through the pilot, businesses will indeed be able to use the system voluntarily ahead of its mandating.

In summary, the Bill is about addressing imbalances in the tax system and making it not only fairer but more sustainable. It is a Bill to ensure that the taxes that are due are paid, preventing opportunities for avoidance and evasion, and it is a Bill to take the tax system forward into the digital age while ensuring that the pace of change works for businesses large and small.

The policies contained in the Bill are set to raise billions more for our vital public services—doctors, nurses, paramedics, teachers, police, prison officers, fire services, our armed forces and all those others in the public sector who help make our country great. This Bill is central to our plan to keep Britain moving forward, and I commend it to the House.