European Council

Philip Hollobone Excerpts

Thursday 8th December 2011 Westminster Hall

[Mr Baron]

As I said at the start, I do not buy the repatriation of powers. I want a fundamental renegotiation of our relationship with the EU based on free trade, competition and growth. Such a renegotiation would recognise the fact that we want good relations with our EU neighbours, and we want good trade relations in particular, but we recognise that we need to engage better with the faster-growing economies throughout the world. In many regions of the world—those of the BRIC economies—growth rates are so much faster. This is not a little Englander approach; it is a globalist approach that recognises that we need to engage better with those faster-growing areas.

[Mr Philip Hollobone (Kettering) (Con)]

I am hugely enjoying my hon. Friend’s speech; he is making some excellent points. Does he agree that in 1980 the EU’s share of world trade was some 30%, but by 2020 it is likely to have fallen to 15%? In other words, it will have halved over a period of 40 years, yet we find ourselves increasingly brought together with part of the world that will grow more slowly than the BRIC economies.

[Mr Baron]

My hon. Friend makes an excellent point. There is much talk of Germany winning market share, but one forgets that Germany has benefited from an artificially weak currency, to which the periphery nations have contributed. Germany has had a very strong manufacturing base allied to a weak currency, which has made for heady growth, but if we take Europe as a whole, it is falling behind. Many people do not recognise that.

I worry that the Government have ruled out the idea of a referendum. I think that is a mistake as we go into a summit, because it cuts off a key negotiating ability. I also worry that we seem to be saying we do not want a two-speed or two-tier Europe, but on the other hand we are trying to join in the chorus of “we must save the euro”, which can only mean closer fiscal union, which can only result, as Angela Merkel has readily acknowledged, in a two-tier, two-speed Europe. It is nonsense and a contradiction. Anybody who believes that closer fiscal and political union will not fundamentally or materially affect our relationship with the EU is living in cloud cuckoo land.

Before I finish, I will attempt to knock down one or two myths surrounding the debate. The first myth is that we must save the euro. In my 15 years in the City running hundreds of millions of pounds for charities, pension funds and private clients with some very large fund management groups, I have never heard so much economic clap-trap. The whole concept to begin with was flawed. The idea that we can bind divergent economies into a single currency without full fiscal union was and remains a mistake. Not only the concept but the solution is flawed. The problem is that we are not addressing the core issue of competitiveness. We have Governments spending too much relative to their means.

This recession, unlike all other post-war recessions, is built on debt. It is a deleveraging, not a destocking, recession. Accordingly, we have to grow our way out of that and reduce our debt. We cannot, as we all know, borrow our way out of debt. The solution does not fit, so I am not convinced that the solution put forward by the present eurozone leaders will work, anyway. However, let us give them the benefit of the doubt. Let us say it buys time. The problem is that by cutting off the option of devaluation—put that and the fact that the solution does not fit to one side for a second—even if it buys time, we are making the austerity packages much worse.

I have previously broached the fact that there have been some 80 situations in which countries have left currency unions since the second world war and have benefited from the growth that has followed. We saw it in our own case when we exited the exchange rate mechanism. By binding countries into a single currency, we have to make the austerity packages more severe, because we are ruling out the option of devaluation, which would increase competitiveness. The eurozone leaders do not seem to understand that. If there was an orderly break-up of the euro, certainly for the periphery nations, the Germans would still want to sell their cars and the French their wine. Believe me, life would go on.

Many say that the banking system could not survive the write-off of the debts. That point was made earlier. However, the markets have already discounted the debt in many of these countries by 60%. It would not come as much of a shock if there was a 50% write-down. In many cases, that would represent a 10% uplift by the banks themselves. This is an economic point that has not been widely acknowledged and accepted. The markets have already downgraded the debt, so this will be a downgrade instituted by politicians. Look at what the markets themselves are telling us.

Nobody has been able to quantify or substantiate why it would create economic mayhem if we did not save the euro. Siren voices also suggested that if we left the ERM something similar and awful would happen. Actually, almost to the day, our economic recovery kicked off.

Finally, if the eurozone wants to crack on and create closer fiscal union, that is fine. That is not, or should not, be mutually exclusive to our objective of wanting to negotiate a different and fundamentally new relationship with the EU. They are not mutually exclusive. Many commentators seem to suggest that by wanting to renegotiate the relationship, we are breaking up or being awkward about what the 17 eurozone members want to do. That is not the case. If they want to take that path, it is up to them, but their taking that path should not restrict us.

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[Mr William Cash (Stone) (Con)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Harwich and North Essex (Mr Jenkin) on securing this extremely important debate. It is a substitute for the debate that the European Scrutiny Committee has insisted should be held on the Floor of the House, but which has been declined by the Government so far.

[Mr Hollobone]

I am looking forward to my hon. Friend’s speech very much indeed. Would it not have been marvellous if the Leader of the House had timetabled an opportunity this week, perhaps on Wednesday afternoon, for the Prime Minister to hear hon. Members’ views on what he should say at the European Council? Then he would have been able to jet off today to that summit with all the suggestions fresh in his mind. Instead, it was up to the Backbench Business Committee to timetable the debate for this afternoon.

[Mr Cash]

I agree. People were not listening back in the days of Maastricht and they are not listening now. That is the problem. I give special thanks to my hon. Friend the Member for Harwich and North Essex not only for this debate but for the consistency that he has shown since the days of the Maastricht rebellion, which I had the honour to lead all those years ago and of which he was a very important member. He was a new Member of the House and he understood the position immediately, as did my right hon. Friend the Member for Chingford and Woodford Green (Mr Duncan Smith) and a number of others who have remained in the House.

This is not only an historic question but a national question. The now absent hon. Member for Luton North (Kelvin Hopkins) mentioned Peter Shore and Bryan Gould. When I set up the Maastricht referendum campaign, it was hon. Members on the other side of the House, such as Peter Shore and Bryan Gould, who joined me in that campaign. We presented a petition, which many people may recall, of well over 500,000 signatures; in fact, we reckon that we got 700,000 signatures all told. The petition was deposited, calling for a referendum on the Maastricht treaty. I was delighted that my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister said only a couple of weeks ago that there should have been a referendum on that treaty. As one who was very deeply engaged in the whole of that process, from beginning to end—much to the dismay of those who have now, in my opinion, lost the argument—I believe that the necessity of knowing the views of the British people remains implicitly entrenched in the arrangements that are now coming forward and that therefore a referendum is essential.

I should now like to move on to the present time. I want to address the question facing us today in terms of the broad landscape. I wrote a pamphlet that was published in effect in this very room when we had a conference between the leading Eurosceptics and the leading Europhiles. It involved Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, Roland Rudd of Business for New Europe and a galaxy of others. Both sides regarded it as essential that we should get together and properly debate the questions on both sides of the argument with many of the best people from the two sides of the debate. In that pamphlet, I set out details that I will not go into today, but I say to those who are interested and who read the transcript of these proceedings that it is available. Indeed, the Prime Minister has written to me, saying that it is a substantial document and effectively, therefore, it has to be answered. He has said as much to me, and it does have to be answered. I assume that my right hon. Friend the Minister for Europe will do so in due course.

This is an historic turning point for both the country and the Conservative party. The dream of ever-closer union and, indeed, political and economic union has failed, and the root of that trouble is the fantasy world, which has persisted for so many decades, of trying to create economic and political union among so many diverse countries with diverse cultures, diverse economies and diverse democratic traditions.

Only today I witnessed Mr Barroso on the television screens berating everyone in the most dictatorial language. He was saying that everyone had to come together for the sake of saving this project. They themselves are responsible for having created it and they are now attempting to save it, despite the fact that the causes of the present discontent come from the creation of this project in the first place by the very people who are now berating everyone else.

I will go further and refer to two documents that I have just obtained. One is dated 6 December. It is Mr Van Rompuy’s document, entitled “Towards a stronger economic Union”. There is not one word about democracy anywhere in that document—the word “democracy” does not appear. Similarly, in the letter written to the President of the European Council—Mr Van Rompuy, no less—by Mr Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, there is not a single reference to the democratic question. There is not one iota, not one jot of a reference to democracy in either of those documents, yet they are demanding that this failed project be continued with greater—deeper—integration. All the mistakes that have been made in the past are being reinforced in the new arrangement, which clearly will not work. It did not work before and it will not work now. It is a tragedy— I say that—that we are in the current position. I trust that the Prime Minister will address that during the next 48 hours.

This is not some theoretical experiment. It is about the daily lives of the British people and about our democratic traditions and economic performance. The idea that a fiscal union of 17 would be stable is simply and emphatically wrong. It will concentrate and increase the dangers of centralisation and will be fundamentally unstable. Germany will not be able to bail out the other countries, and it is a complete strategic failure for people, including the coalition Government, to think that it can.

Germany of course wants to preserve the euro, because it is doing so well out of it. One has only to consider the foreign direct investment by the Germans in other countries, the extent to which those countries are in effect economic satellites of Germany and the fact that the structural funds—I have the figures from the Library—are so incredibly important in generating investment backed by German contracts in those other countries, from which they then repatriate the profits. This is actually a German economic hegemony. Equally, I do not think that the Germans are inherently hostile about this. I say what I say without any hostile spirit, but I do say that we have to be realistic. We are desperately at risk. The British nation is in peril under these arrangements.

Furthermore, the impact of this economic conglomeration in the hands of one country in particular has led not only, in effect, to the dismissal of two Prime Ministers, whatever their merits or demerits, but to the voting arrangements, which follow from the qualified majority voting system. I am talking about the number of votes that are available to Germany when it wants to pursue a policy, because of its influence and, in effect, its control over the countries in question, which are dependent on it. That is the case not only in the eurozone of 17, but in so many of the other countries, including— I say this without any disrespect for them, because I love these countries—Poland and Denmark. Then of course there are Bulgaria, Romania, the Baltic states, Hungary and so on. The truth is that that is inherently in German national interests. Indeed, we have to look only at what Chancellor Kohl had to say in the 1990s, which I have included in a pamphlet that I wrote, called “It’s the EU, stupid”, to see the political determination behind Germany’s desire to ensure that the euro survives. Angela Merkel is now using that very language in the same context.

I do not blame the Germans. I have said in this Chamber that I recognise the fact that to a great extent they have shown their commercial nous—they have taken advantage of the system to ensure that they get the best out of it. The organisation is not a European union, but effectively a greater Germany.

We, above all other countries in Europe, ought to recognise that we should defend our own interests—not, as I said, in a hostile manner, but in a realistic and down-to-earth manner. We ought to get across the message that there should be, inherent in the proposed arrangements, a fundamental change in our relationship with the European Union. We and, if I may say so, the Prime Minister, have an absolute duty to protect the national interest that he says he wants to protect; to ensure that there is fundamental reform in the European Union, which he called for at the Mansion house the other day, to generate the growth that we need, with our 40% of trade with the Union and to guarantee that we are not drawn into an arrangement by which, through a majority block vote, we are consistently outvoted and become completely and utterly controlled by the system. It just does not make sense, and I believe that the system will not work.

It needs to be pointed out that not only is voting power naturally going to Germany, with its economic investments—it is doing extremely well out of the system—but Germany believes that it can require countries to obey rules. That is a much deeper question, a matter of attitude. We cannot require countries to obey rules just because we prescribe them. That is where I think the whole philosophy and the attitudes in the Eurocracy and in Germany go wrong. As we have heard, the Germans themselves have not obeyed the rules on the stability and growth pact when it suited them not to. An inherent dishonesty lies at the heart of the arrangements: someone disobeys the rules when it suits them, but insists that the rules be obeyed when they can benefit out of those rules. That cannot be right.

Countries are made up of individuals and individual companies, which have their own ideas as to how they should be democratically governed. Those ideas do not by any means fit within the rules prescribed from above or the conditions that are imposed. The Eurocrats, Germany and those who go with it on the matter simply do not understand that the lack of democracy is a fundamental flaw in the entire European project.

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[Mr Cash]

First, there is a strong case for getting out of the euro, because that would enable countries to—[Interruption.] It is described as irrevocable, but I have news for the hon. Member for Cheltenham (Martin Horwood): treaties and laws have been passed for not generations but centuries, and there are more treaties and international relationships that have been reviewed and changed than he might have had hot breakfasts. When those things do not work, there is a good starting point for reviewing them. That is what we are doing now.

[Mr Hollobone]

My hon. Friend thinks that there may well be a move to establish a fiscal union of the 17 eurozone countries. If that is not possible, and if an agreement of the full 17 cannot be achieved, does he think that there could be a move to establish a fiscal union with a smaller number of eurozone countries to let some of the peripheral economies have some kind of orderly default?

[Mr Cash]

I think that the crisis is so great that that suggestion has to be taken on board seriously. I agree with the sentiment that lies behind that suggestion.

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[Mr Philip Hollobone (Kettering) (Con)]

I believe that my constituents in Kettering see this weekend’s summit as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union. I also believe that they want me to state that they want their say in the future of our country’s relationship with the European Union through a referendum at the ballot box. It would be a huge credit to the Conservative party if we were to go to the country on any deal that the Prime Minister negotiates this weekend. It would expose the myths that we are being told by the Liberal Democrats about how in touch they are with popular opinion and would reveal once again the flaws in their manifesto. They seem increasingly to find ways to deny people a referendum on issues on which they promised them a vote.

My constituents in Kettering want us to be part of a common market. They want a free trade relationship with Europe and, increasingly, with the rest of the world, but the EU’s share of world output is falling year by year. It was 30% of world trade in 1980, and it will be 15% by 2020. Periodically, we all cut ourselves up about how important Europe is to this country, but we are increasingly tying ourselves to an economic bloc that is going south, not north. The future of our great trading nation lies with the emerging economies such as Brazil, India and China, many of which are Commonwealth countries with which we have deep and close relationships that could be deepened ever further.

On what the Prime Minister should be demanding back from the EU this weekend, we could not have a debate on the European Union chaired by you, Mrs Main, without mentioning the habitual residency test. The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions has said that the European Union is trying to overturn the United Kingdom’s rules on benefits to benefit tourists. This country refuses to give them benefits if they do not pass the habitual residency test, yet the European institutions are trying to overturn that regulation at a cost, according to the Government’s own figures, of between £2.5 billion and £5 billion every year. That is one thing to demand back from Europe.

My constituents would also like the Prime Minister to demand back control over our borders once again, because they are fed up with the mass immigration from the European Union on to our shores. We want our fishing grounds back and our agriculture policy back. Above all, we do not want to spend more and more each year on our membership subscription. In the last five years of the previous Labour Government, the membership subscription was some £19 billion. At the end of this coalition Government’s five years—should they last that long—it will be £41 billion. The cost of our membership has doubled as the red tape coming out of Brussels increasingly strangles the ability of British business to create the wealth that pays for our subscription in the first place.

This is a wonderful opportunity for our country. I hope that the Prime Minister has the courage to seize this golden opportunity to restate Britain’s relationship with the European Union and to create a brighter relationship not only for the EU but for Britain outside it.