Rail Investment

Debate between Paul Maynard and Martin Horwood

Thursday 17th February 2011 Westminster Hall

[Paul Maynard]

As with all matters relating to rail freight, I bow to the hon. Gentleman’s superior knowledge, and would not dare trespass on it for fear of being shown up as an ignoramus.

I shall discuss HS2, because it is so controversial and cannot be avoided. The arguments are difficult, and whichever side of the argument someone is on their policy must be evidence based, because it is only through an evidence base that the politics of the proposals can start to be addressed. I recognise that there are arguments on both sides. As a northern Member of Parliament, I see immense potential benefits, but I am sure that if I were an MP in an area affected by the proposed route, I would have enormous concerns. It is, however, dangerous to base our argument solely on a few simplistic notions. Building the railway will not in itself heal the north-south divide, and it is foolish to base the argument on that soundbite alone. It is equally dangerous to base it on saying that there will somehow be magnificent environmental benefits by domestic aviation being rendered unnecessary. At the moment, we cannot see even one or two years ahead in our domestic aviation environment, let alone 15 to 20. Who knows where Heathrow will be by then?

[Martin Horwood]

The evidence from other high-speed rail systems around the world is that where they are over sufficient distances—which, admittedly, probably means further than Birmingham—there is something like an 80% drop in air traffic over those distances. London to Paris is a good example.

[Paul Maynard]

I agree almost entirely with that point—but perhaps only 80%. It very much depends on where someone is flying from and where they are going to, and I suggest that in 15 years’ time perhaps no one will be flying domestically to Heathrow, if only because it might have ceased to be an international hub. We might all be flying to Paris, Amsterdam or Frankfurt, but that is another matter entirely.

The key variable in the discussion on HS2 is demand. Whether demand will increase is contested, but as someone who travels regularly on the west coast main line, I know full well that that line is already reaching capacity. The east coast main line is also struggling, and we cannot have people being herded into pens at Euston station on a Friday evening and say that we are not at capacity already. I accept entirely the argument that extra capacity has to be provided, but it is not simply a matter of expanding a few platforms here and inserting a few carriages there, making cattle class a literal concept for millions of travellers. We have to discuss what type of capacity to provide, and I realise that that is perhaps a confused area for people on both sides of the argument.