(14 years, 6 months ago)
Commons ChamberWe should certainly listen to “Danny” Blanchflower, for whom I have great respect. He gave evidence to the Select Committee on several occasions, and he is one of a number of voices that we should—[Interruption.] Absolutely—it was David Blanchflower’s nickname at the time. We should certainly listen to him, but we should also listen to all the evidence. He was, on that occasion, more right. I am not persuaded, having heard other voices, that he is entirely right now—but he does highlight a danger, and we should certainly not disregard that. Across the piece, as the hon. Gentleman acknowledged, we did not appreciate the scale of what was coming.
When I look at what was happening in the early part of this year, my instinct would be to cut the least possible, and to stimulate growth as much as possible. However, there comes a point at which we have to deal with what is before us, rather than what we hoped might be before us. It became clear during the election—and I remember making this point at an all-party hustings—that throughout Europe it was a very different ball game from the one with which we had all been dealing just three, four, or five weeks before, and that we needed to take that into account.
I am therefore predisposed to assume the worst, and to look hard at the core problem. The next piece of guidance derives from my experience of running companies in the hospitality industry. I am not for a moment saying that the relatively small companies that I ran bear comparison to a country, but some of the principles do. I remember taking over two companies that were essentially bankrupt. If the owning shareholders had not guaranteed the finance, they would have gone into administration. In both cases, my job was to turn them round, and I heard arguments about how I should get hold of money and invest it on the one hand, or how I should redress the costs of the company on the other.
When people do not have money—the piggybank is empty, and it is difficult to get money from the banks—they have no choice but to live within their means. I learned that by stabilising company expenditure, and forgoing some investment for the future, I could produce a more stable enterprise. It is the same with this country and the balance of risk. The risk, on the one hand, of failing to take action is that we seriously run out of money, our credit rating is reduced, our borrowing costs go up, and we end up spending far more on debt interest than on health, education or defence. Something would then be imposed on us, as happened with the Labour Government in the 1970s. The risk on the other side is that if we cut too quickly, growth will be stifled and we will take longer to come out of our current situation. Balancing those two risks, I believe that the risk is greater if we do not deal with the deficit, so it needs to be dealt with.
Secondly, is the Budget fair? My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills made an extremely good case for demonstrating that it is—in as much as any pain can be fair. I would far rather be standing here supporting a Budget that gave people lots of money. That would be lovely, but, as the Labour Chief Secretary to the Treasury said, there is no money. So we have to be prudent, and that means that we have to share the pain. The whole point is that everybody will suffer, but we have to ensure that the suffering falls least on the most vulnerable, and most on those who can afford it. Charts A1, A2 and A3 in the Red Book set out exactly how the suffering will fall, and it is perfectly clear from them that those at the bottom will bear the least pain and those at the top bear most.
In my constituency average earnings are £21,000, and table A1 on page 64 shows that after the Budget somebody on £20,000 will be £170 better off, given the amount of income tax and national insurance that they pay. They will pay £170 less than they would have done. Table A2 shows that they will receive £145 less in family tax credit, but when we put the two amounts together we see that they will still be £25 better off. That is not a large amount of money, but it makes the point that if we take the Budget in the round, including VAT, which nobody can deny is regressive on its own, we clearly find that the pain is shared, and felt less by those at the bottom than by those at the top. So I conclude that the Budget is fair.
I welcome the Budget. It is not one that I would have liked to have to support. I would have liked to see the coffers full, and to be able to be nice to people—but in the circumstance this is the right Budget, and it is fair.
Will the hon. Gentleman not also reflect on the fact that those tables do not capture the punitive effect of the forthcoming 25% cut in non-ring-fenced public services on people who most rely on benefits and public services? Those elements in the tables and in the Budget do not really take into account—in the round, as he puts it—the full impact of the cuts that we will see.
The hon. Gentleman makes a very good point. Broadly speaking, 20% to 25% cuts are going to be introduced in this autumn’s spending review, and we will need to look at that. However, I find it difficult to take lessons on that from a party that introduced £40 billion of cuts without a single centime being allocated to anything whatever. That is like a bankrupt father promising his children a sackful of presents at Christmas as the bailiffs wheel him out on Christmas eve: it is deeply irresponsible.
Let me turn to the specific measures. I absolutely must commend the Government on their commitment to consider a pilot scheme for a remote rural fuel discount, because year in, year out I made that proposal from the Opposition Benches and the previous Government compared it to the cost of beer and all sorts of other things. My friends in the Conservative party chose to wait and see what would happen, and I am delighted that they did so, because they now agree that my measure should be considered, for which I thank them warmly.
On enterprise, it is critical that we rebalance the economy. First, we must achieve a rebalancing whereby there is more private sector and less public sector. That does not mean that the public sector has to shrink; the private sector has to grow to support the public sector. Secondly, we absolutely have to move our economy away from an utter dependence on financial services, which delivered 25% of tax revenue three years ago, and towards manufacturing industries and technologies and skills-based industries throughout the regions of the United Kingdom.
I am glad that the Government will continue with and enhance the enterprise finance guarantee scheme. However, the scheme has one flaw, which I have highlighted many times: the Catch-22 situation whereby the banks that do not lend then decide whether to include an enterprise in the scheme. There must be some way in which the banks’ decisions can be reviewed.
I also commend my right hon. Friend on the action being taken to get non-bank finance into small and medium-sized businesses, but may I gently ask my friends who are now on the Front Bench to look at the papers that I wrote—they were in the Liberal Democrat manifesto—on enterprise funds, and consider whether some of those ideas might help to address how we get equity funding into small businesses? May I also stress the importance of the regional growth funds and express the hope that the details of them and how they will work will be brought forward quickly? The concepts of an infrastructure bank and a green investment bank should be brought forward as rapidly as possible, too.
Having looked at the Budget, I conclude that it is not one that I particularly like to see brought in, but it is necessary. There is pain, and it has to be borne, but the Budget is equitable in that the pain falls least on those who have least. Notwithstanding my personal regard for the shadow Chancellor, I really cannot take lessons from him or his party, having listened for nine years from the Opposition Benches to their boasts about the end of boom and bust. We now know that the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) was the father of all booms and the mother of all busts. That much-vaunted child, prudence, is lying battered, bloody and bruised in the gutter—and it is this Government who will take her out and restore to health.