(5 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberNo, I am going to move on, because others want to speak.
I am aware that such views do not go down well in this House, but I really do appeal to Members to think of the reaction outside it. The anger is touchable. People expect us to leave. At the moment, there is a real, existential threat to both the main parties. The first 100 marginals that the Labour party must win include 78 for leave, and we know that a similar number of the marginals that we on the Conservative side must win are strongly for leave. At the moment, we have a free market in terms of leave votes—UKIP has disappeared, and there is no one else. If we are so stupid as to pass this motion tonight and to go for a European election—I appeal to my colleagues on the Front Bench—we will singlehandedly give a new party an opportunity to emerge, funded with European money, and that would be a great mistake.
I say with the greatest of respect to my right hon. Friend that this is about getting it right for our country—for businesses and employees. It is not about grubbing around for votes.
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Very helpfully, he has moved me on to my next point. I am looking at the clock, and I will be quite brief.
The biggest danger to business at the moment is uncertainty. Last week, sadly, we had the resignation of my hon. Friend the Member for Daventry (Chris Heaton-Harris)—or “Dane-tree”, as it was pronounced when I used to work in Northampton. He said to the Prime Minister:
“whilst I would have preferred to leave the European Union with your deal, I truly believe our country would have swiftly overcome any immediate issues of leaving without a deal and gone on to thrive.”
It is absolutely clear that there has been a relentless campaign by “Project Fear” against no deal. There is no such thing as no deal; there has already been a succession of mini-deals. We were told that aeroplanes would not fly; that has been sorted out. We were told that drugs would not arrive; my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Health has fixed the drugs problem. We know from Monsieur Puissesseau, who runs the port of Calais, that people there are relaxed. Looking at the World Trade Organisation terms, the WTO facilitation treaty, and the sanitary and phytosanitary terms, it is clear that it is illegal for our partners to arbitrarily stop the shipment of goods that conformed the day before we left. This whole issue of no deal has been blown up out of all proportion; it is a last stand for remain.
(9 years ago)
Commons ChamberYes, and I think the Administration were weak not to get their way on that. Of course, the Maliki regime, which was corrupt and sectarian, has now gone. What we need to look at now is how we make these entities work. Any expert on the area will say that it is not an option to destroy these boundaries.
What I would put to those on the Front-Bench—a line in the motion provides the grounds for this—is that we should follow what the current Prime Minister is doing in Iraq in talking about functioning federalism. We need to give these ethnic groups security within the old post-world war one boundaries. If we look at how the Ottomans did it, we see that they basically left the locals to run their own show. There is a clear breakdown in Iraq whereby significant autonomy is provided within these entities, and this is already happening with the Kurds.
Given the terrible conditions under which local people are living, we will not get their support to remove Daesh if they do not feel that they will emerge at the end of this very difficult process with an entity to which they are loyal and feel safe in. Sunnis in Iraq will not stick their heads above the parapet if they think they will end up with another corrupt Maliki Shi’a regime. The same applies the other way round, because the Shi’a will not want to end up with another Saddam regime.
I entirely agree with my right hon. Friend on the point about federation. Trying to put the construct of a nation-state boundary on what are still tribal areas is almost impossible. Federation has clearly worked well in Yugoslavia, following the conflict there, and it is something that we should look towards.
My proposal is that we do not rearrange the post-world war one boundaries. We should work very closely with the locals in the Vienna negotiations, with the clear intent that at the end of the process, having removed Daesh by military means, we will have an entity that will allow local ethnic and religious groups to have real loyalty to the area where they live. If we do not do that, all the questions from the other side about the 70,000 and all the rest of it will arise. Of course there is doubt, because they are not prepared to stick their heads above the parapet until they know exactly where we are going and they know that they will emerge living in part of a federation where they can be loyal to the new entity.
I shall support the motion tonight, but I urge the Government in the Vienna negotiations to look at how to bring in the Sunni and other local powers in order to establish a long-term solution. We have to look to the long term; there is no short-term fix. Ultimately, there will have to be an international presence to help grow these local institutions, but we must build them around the local ethnic groups.