Mike Wood
Main Page: Mike Wood (Conservative - Dudley South)Department Debates - View all Mike Wood's debates with the Department of Health and Social Care
(2 years, 10 months ago)
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Mike Wood (Dudley South) (Con)
As MPs, we are asked to take fundamentally political decisions, balancing the certainty of harm done to people’s livelihoods and wellbeing, which is caused by restrictions, with the imminent risk to people’s lives and the ability of our health services to cope if the pandemic were to spiral out of control. We can only do so on the basis of the very best medical and scientific advice that is available.
Two weeks ago, I was sure that there was no reason why step 4 should not go ahead on 21 June. Within days, that certainty looked foolish. The advice now is clear that pressing ahead on Monday would lead to massive increases in admissions that would leave our hospitals with more covid patients than at any of the worst points of last year. Given that and given the clear guidance from our local NHS leaders of the impact that this would have on their ability to treat people in need, the only responsible course of action is to pause. However, that does not mean that we should not question and test that advice.
Unlike some, I do not believe that the advice has been manipulated to secure a specific outcome. This is not another 45-minute dossier. None the less, some of the modelling does look strange. Some of the assumptions could be questionable. The effectiveness of the vaccines are estimated at 89% and 90% in the modelling, whereas Public Health England data put it at 92% and 96%. The difference between 89% and 96% might not sound huge, but, if we flip it around, the difference in the ineffectiveness rate between 4% and 11% is enormous and clearly would have significant policy implications.
The models project 2,500 hospital admissions a day within eight weeks. That suggests a rate of increase of 40% a week, which is much higher than we are currently experiencing. If that increase was actually 30%, the admissions would be closer to 1,400 a day. If the current rate of 22%, which was seen in the past week, were to continue, then it would reach just 800 after eight weeks. Surely those differences would lead to different policy choices. That is why this two-week break point is important and why it is vital that Ministers take it seriously.
I will back the motions tonight, but if, over the next two weeks, the data do not bear out the hypotheses in the models, we must rethink.