Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make a comparative assessment of the outturn and forecast data for public sector net (a) borrowing, (b) debt, excluding Bank of England debt, and (c) financial liabilities for each financial year from 2024-25 until 2029-30 (i) before and (ii) after 29 July 2024.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The information requested is publicly available. Forecast data is published on the OBR’s website https://obr.uk/publications/. Outturn public finances data is published on the ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance.
At Autumn Budget 2024, the government put the public finances on a sustainable path by strengthening the fiscal framework, including announcing new fiscal rules, and taking difficult decisions on tax, welfare and spending.
In March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the government is on track to meet its fiscal rules.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, for what reason her Department did not make an assessment of the potential impact of the proposed Double Contribution Convention with India on the public purse before agreeing to it.
Answered by James Murray - Exchequer Secretary (HM Treasury)
The OBR will certify the impact of the trade deal including the Double Contributions Convention in the usual way at a fiscal event, once the deal is finalised and ratified. The agreement to negotiate a Double Contributions Convention was made in the context of the wider deal, which will bring billions into the economy.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, if she will make it her Department’s policy to announce changes to winter fuel payments at fiscal events.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
This Government remains absolutely committed to supporting pensioners and giving them the dignity and security they deserve in retirement.
The Government took the right action last July to support the public finances. Tough but fair decisions were taken, including making sure Winter Fuel Payments would be targeted at those with the highest need. That principle still stands.
As the economy improves, the Government wants to make sure people feel those improvements. The Government wants to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for Winter Fuel Payments.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate she has made of the cost to the public purse of migrants to the UK gaining access to (a) welfare payments and (b) other services as a result of obtaining indefinite leave to remain for each financial year from 2024-25 onward.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces forecasts of the UK’s economic and fiscal position.
Box 4.5 of the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook published in March 2024 sets out estimated impacts of migration on the fiscal forecast. As the minimum residency required to move to indefinite leave to remain is currently at least 5 years, this falls outside the forecast period. As the OBR says in the March 2024 EFO: ”However, our forecasts will capture the cost of any immigrants from previous cohorts who now claim welfare through Indefinite leave to remain grants because their claims will be included in the outturn data that provides the starting point for our forecast”.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 7 April 2025 to Question 43439 on Public Expenditure, the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether the Chief Secretary will correct the record.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The current budget was last in a sustained surplus between 1998-99 and 2001-02. The last financial year for which the current budget was in surplus was 2018-19, when there was a surplus of 0.0% of GDP.
This information is available in the public finances databank, published by the Office for Budget Responsibility: www.obr.uk/data/
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, how the policies scored at the Spring Statement differ from the policies announced by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025; and for what reason these policies were changed.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of two measures. Firstly, the Universal Credit standard allowance will reach £106 per week in 2029-30, an increase above inflation. This differs to the level of £107 per week in 2029-30, which was the latest policy assumption at the time of the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025. Secondly, the government will freeze the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation, which was the policy assumption at the time of the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions’s statement to the House on 18 March 2025.
These updates were made after statement, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costings and behavioural assumptions associated with the measures. The adjustments we have made ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability. This package remains consistent with the government’s Green Paper and the statement to the House made by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what the net impact of (a) Government policies since 4 July 2024, (b) the Autumn Budget 2024 and (c) the Spring Statement 2025 has been on the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts for real household disposable income per person in each financial year between 2024-25 and 2029-30.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy. Forecasts, including for real household disposable income per person, are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). These forecasts are published by the OBR as part of their Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO).
The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2024 Autumn Budget can be found in their October 2024 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/
The OBR’s assessment of policy decisions at the 2025 Spring Statement can be found in their March 2025 EFO, available here: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
In their March forecast, after accounting for the effects of policy at both events, the OBR forecast was for RHDI per capita to rise by an annual average of 0.5% over this parliament (Q3 2024 – Q2 2029).
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what proportion of the additional defence expenditure she announced at the Spring Statement falls under capital departmental expenditure limits; what proportion falls under resource departmental expenditure limits; and for what reason these allocations were arrived at.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
The Chancellor’s Spring Statement document, published on 26 March, set out the Resource DEL and Capital DEL uplifts to defence spending over the scorecard period.
A greater proportion of the uplift will be Capital DEL funding. This reflects the needs of defence, and will enable the accelerated the adoption of cutting-edge capabilities, and rebuild stockpiles, munitions, and other essentials depleted after a period focussed on international terrorism and global crises. This Capital DEL focus also supports the Chancellor’s mission to boost growth, enabling greater spending on novel and innovative technologies.
The allocation of this uplift and the MOD budget will be confirmed as part of the Spending Review 2025, which will conclude on 11 June 2025.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to the Answer of 26 March 2025 to Question 40157 on Public Expenditure, and with reference to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury's statement to the House on 28 October 2024, Official Report, column 562, whether it is her Department's policy to target an overall budget surplus.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
At Autumn Budget 2024, the government confirmed new fiscal rules to put the public finances on a sustainable path, and prioritise investment to support long-term growth.
The stability rule is that the current budget must be in surplus in 2029-30, until 29-30 becomes the third year of the forecast period. From that point, the current budget must then remain in balance or in surplus from the third year of the rolling forecast period, where balance is defined as a range: in surplus, or in deficit of no more than 0.5% of GDP. This range will support the government’s commitment to a single fiscal event every year by avoiding the need for policy adjustment at forecasts outside of fiscal events. If the range is used between fiscal events, the current budget must return to surplus from the third year at the following fiscal event.
In its March 2025 forecast, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed the government was on track to meet its stability and investment rules two years early. By 2029-30, the current budget is forecast to be in a surplus of £9.9 billion.
Asked by: Mel Stride (Conservative - Central Devon)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to paragraph 3.2 of the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published on 26 March 2025, what changes were made to the reduction in the level of the Universal Credit health element following the certification deadline; and for what reason.
Answered by Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
In response to feedback from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the government made amendments to the policy parameters of the changes to the Universal Credit health element. The government is freezing the reduced Universal Credit health element level for new claimants, in line with our objectives to rebalance the system, rather than uprating it by Consumer Price Index inflation.
This update was made after the statement to the House delivered by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 18 March 2025, once the Office for Budget Responsibility had given its final assessment of the costing and behavioural assumptions associated with the measure. The adjustments were made to ensure we continue to strike the right balance between setting strong work incentives and fiscal sustainability.