(11 years, 10 months ago)
Commons ChamberWhen the Lisbon treaty was debated in this Chamber, the Liberal Democrats were the only ones who proposed an in/out referendum, not at some hypothetical time in the far distant future, but then and there, yet few Conservative MPs—or, indeed, Labour MPs—joined us in the Lobby that day. We have therefore been very consistent in arguing for referendums at times of major change. What I am highlighting is the lack of certainty in Conservative policy, which has yet again changed in the last few weeks. I might make rather more money than I generally do at the Cheltenham gold cup by betting that within the next four years, before this hypothetical referendum takes place, Conservative policy might just change a little again.
The real problem is not the principle of a referendum; the real problem is what will happen in the intervening years. This whole debate has given those who do not share the Prime Minister’s agenda—which is quite positive about membership of the European Union—an excuse basically to campaign for a British exit. Some of them dress it up in the argument for this imagined wholesale renegotiation of the British terms of membership. There is no reason why that should succeed, because if we start unpicking all aspects of our relationship with Europe, why would the French not start arguing to unpick competition policy? Why would the Germans not start arguing for the protection of their energy markets? Why would quite a lot of countries not start arguing, after perhaps making a few concessions to us, for taking back our rebate, as a quid pro quo? Realistically, I do not think that an unpicking of the whole relationship will happen.
In the meantime, business will be concerned about the uncertainty. Some of the statements from business have been clear. David Sproul, the UK head of Deloitte, has said:
“The Europe debate does not help to create certainty. When I talk to US clients who have not been immersed in the European debate as we have, they say that what they need is clarity. There is no question: it will impact business—it will hit investment into the UK.”
That point is repeated in a number of different quotations.
Would the hon. Gentleman acknowledge that all those arguments were put forward during the euro debate and that they were all proved wrong? For example, it was said that the Japanese car companies would all go, but that did not happen. It is a sorry state of affairs when the European Union seems almost incompatible with a democratic referendum or with the will of democratically elected national Governments.
Membership of the European Union is not at all incompatible with democratic referendums. We have had one and we have advocated another, and the coalition has legislated for a referendum lock if powers should ever move closer to Brussels, so that is not the issue. The real issue is British jobs and British business, and the climate of uncertainty, which is not about the principle of a referendum; it is about the risk of exit and the damage that that would do to the British economy and to the guarantee of peace and freedom across the European continent for future generations. It is also about the risk of losing our place at the table on everything from climate change to world trade. Those are genuine, deep risks, and concern is now being expressed by businesses, by our European partners and by our allies around the world.
Whatever we think about the principle of a referendum, we need to be absolutely clear which way we would vote in a referendum. The Prime Minister has tried to start making the case for a yes vote, and for Britain remaining in the European Union, but he has shied away from making a really firm commitment. The Liberal Democrats are absolutely clear that we would argue for Britain to remain at the heart of Europe, and the more that Members on other Benches stick their heads above the parapet and start to make that case as well, the better.