European Council

Mark Reckless Excerpts

Thursday 8th December 2011 Westminster Hall

[Mark Reckless (Rochester and Strood) (Con)]

I pay tribute to my hon. Friend the Member for Harwich and North Essex (Mr Jenkin), who is not currently in his seat. I first met him 18 years ago as a UK economist for Warburgs, where we argued for Britain staying out of the euro. Warburgs invited my hon. Friend, who was then a new MP, to address a lunch of clients. He explained that we would be better off outside the euro. When a client asked, “But wouldn’t that push up gilt yields, and wouldn’t there be a risk premium for being out of the euro?”, he said, “No. There would be more risk inside the euro. If we stayed out of the euro, in due course, gilt yields would fall below those of German bunds.” That has now happened, and I pay tribute to him for his perspicacity on that issue.

My hon. Friend quoted from a TaxPayers Alliance piece that I found very helpful. It refers to a paper from 2004, which says that we should

“Change our relationship with the EU so that crucial powers are brought back”

and

“take back powers over trade, work and civil rights.”

It states that the British people believe that:

“Giving away power in the hope of influencing the EU has been tried for decades and the EU just gets more power over British life and uses it badly. We should be taking back power, not handing more over.”

Who was the author? My right hon. Friend the Member for Witney (Mr Cameron). Yet, going into the summit this weekend, we now hear that we can ask for only so much back—perhaps not much at all—because our priority must be to save the euro. Then we are told, rather contradictorily, that we cannot ask for too much back, because if we do, they will do it as 17 rather than 27. It cannot be both. In the short term, the only institution that can keep the euro ticking over—I fear it will be no more than that—is the European Central Bank, by printing money and buying Italian and Spanish bonds. Everything else is mood music for German public opinion, but what about our public opinion?

If the euro is to continue, the fundamental issue is competitiveness. Within the euro, the only way to deal with Germany’s overvaluation on competitiveness—it is 30% or 40% better than Italy or Spain, perhaps even more compared with Greece—is to have a significant and sustained period of inflation within Germany. If Germany will not accept that, the only way that peripheral Europe can be priced back into competitiveness with Germany is by a break-up of the euro. I believe that it would be better for that to happen sooner rather than later. It is 18 months since we saw that Greece could not pay its debts, yet it has been patched up, and we now risk throwing good money after bad to keep things going, when it is the euro that is preventing growth in Europe.

I do not dispute that a break-up of the euro will be damaging in the short term, but within two or three years, I believe that growth within Europe will be stronger after a return to national currencies than if we try to keep the euro going. My hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash) discussed Germany repatriating its profits. The individual German company can repatriate profits, but Germany as a whole cannot, because Germany has used the euro as the latest manifestation of a system—it started with Bretton Woods, then the snake, then the exchange rate mechanism—to keep its currency artificially low, so that it exports vastly more than it imports. As a result, Germany must recycle its assets into sub-prime US mortgages or Greek Government debt. Only after Germany stops depressing its currency through that system will we come back into balance, and countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy will be able once more to compete with Germany. We should focus on that during the summit.

The Prime Minister is going to the summit, and we will see what powers, if any, he seeks to bring back, but it is clear that there has been a fundamental change in the UK-EU relationship. Page 63 of the Liberal Democrat manifesto said that in such circumstances, there should be a referendum of the British people to decide whether we should stay in on those terms or whether, as I would like, we should again be an independent country trading with Europe but governing ourselves.

[Mrs Anne Main (in the Chair)]

I have a correction. I will call the Opposition Front-Bench spokesperson at 5.12 pm.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Lidington]

No. We do not know the shape, let alone the detail, of any agreement that might be reached over the next 24 hours or longer. The risk alluded to by a number of my hon. Friends, which perhaps lies behind the hon. Lady’s intervention, is that of caucusing. The risk is that the greater economic integration of the 17, and of more countries over time as other member states join the euro, as is still their intention, will lead to caucusing on single market measures, so that the UK would in effect be presented with a “take it or leave it” option. That is certainly a theoretical risk and I do not want to pretend otherwise. The political reality, however, is, first, that that is not how the eurozone countries have operated up till now. We were given similar warnings when the United Kingdom took the decision to stay outside the euro when it was created, but those dire warnings have not been justified by the events of the years since.

Secondly, when I talk to Ministers from the other 26 member states, I find that neither the eurozone 17 nor the euro-out 10 are cohesive or monolithic blocs. Talking to Dutch, German—in particular—Finnish, Austrian or Irish Ministers, one finds that they all very much want the United Kingdom, with its championship of free and open markets and an outward-looking European Union, to be centrally involved in taking decisions. There is not that drive towards a caucus that a number of my hon. Friends fear.

[Mark Reckless]

Will the Minister give way?

[Mr Lidington]

I will not, I am sorry. I want to leave some time to my hon. Friend the Member for Harwich and North Essex, so I must conclude my remarks shortly.

I will write to those hon. Friends who have mentioned particular subjects, such as my hon. Friend the Member for Cheltenham (Martin Horwood) who spoke about energy. I assure my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire that we completely recognise the importance of financial services. A thriving City of London is an asset not only to the United Kingdom but to the European Union as a whole. We should go out and sell that case loudly and confidently. We have made it clear that, if a financial transactions tax introduced at EU level were to cost jobs and growth—that is on the basis of the Commission’s own impact assessment—we would veto it. If others wanted to go ahead, foolishly, on the basis of an enhanced co-operation measure, that would be a matter for them.

It is clear that the next few days will be important for Europe. We head into the summit with a clear objective. Yes, we support the eurozone in sorting out its problems, but we will not sign up to fiscal discipline in the eurozone without safeguards and certainly not at the expense of our industries or our independence.