Scottish Separation

Mark Lazarowicz Excerpts

Tuesday 10th July 2012 Westminster Hall

[Graeme Morrice]

In terms of setting interest rates and so on. The Chancellor still has a role in that regard —a role that a separate Scottish Government in an independent Scotland would not have. There would be no accountability, no influence and no say in that, and the UK Government have confirmed that officially.

Whichever way one looks at the matter, the SNP’s policy of retaining the pound sterling as a separate currency for Scotland is a proposal engulfed by uncertainty. At the same time, the SNP insists that a separate Scotland would be entitled to automatic membership of the European Union—a position that is in serious doubt, as highlighted by last year’s well documented Library standard note on “Scotland, independence and the EU”, which states:

“There is no precedent for a devolved part of an EU member state becoming independent and having to determine its membership of the EU as a separate entity, and the question has given rise to widely different views.”

[Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North and Leith) (Lab/Co-op)]

Even assuming good will on both sides of the argument for an independent Scotland trying to renegotiate terms with the EU—I do not believe that there is any reason to assume hostility from other EU member states—the fact is that the EU is not, to put it kindly, the swiftest-moving institution. Is it not likely that even with the best will in the world the new arrangements would take a long time—years—to finalise, yet again leading to the continued uncertainty about which we heard earlier?

[Graeme Morrice]

I certainly agree with that proposition. Going back to the 1992 general election campaign, I recall that the SNP talked about independence within Europe. I note that it is not banging on about that now.

For the sake of argument, let us assume, although it is unlikely, that a separate Scotland would be permitted to join the EU immediately. We know with some certainty that such a position would require Scotland to commit to joining the euro at some point in the future, taking the nationalists back to the same risky and unpopular position that they have tried desperately to abandon. Again, it seems to be beyond doubt that the unknown risks posed by breaking up Britain are significant and that the uncertainty about which currency the country would use could not possibly be good for business or families in a separate Scotland.

I have tried to focus on a few of the numerous essential economic consequences of separation. I could have looked at many others, including whether the tax base of a separate Scotland could sustain a separate Scottish economy and what personal and business taxation rates would have to be levied, whether the Scottish Government could meet existing UK Government state and public sector pensions commitments, what the impact would be of turning our biggest trading partner into our biggest competitor, what the cost would be to our economy of losing UK Government shipbuilding contracts and what a separate Scottish Government could borrow. I am sure that other Members will want to address those and other questions in the time that remains.

I would like to go back to where I started and the wider debate on this subject. It has been fascinating to watch the twists and turns of the SNP over the past few months. It has demonstrably failed to answer a series of critical questions about the consequences of its plans to separate Scotland from the UK, despite that having been its raison d’être for more than 75 years. Those in the SNP leadership must wonder where they can go next, as they face up to the prospect of support for separation flatlining, no matter how far into the future they push the referendum.

Many in nationalist circles must also be asking themselves how their leaders have managed to squander the considerable political capital that they enjoyed just over one year ago. What remains clear is that the economic dimension to the separation debate is crucial, and there is an absolute responsibility on the UK and Scottish Governments to publish the best available information and projections of the potential economic consequences of breaking up the UK, as debate on that crucial question continues and intensifies. Ultimately, as long as economic evidence continues to show that Scottish families will be better off remaining in the UK, coupled with the wider social, cultural and political strength derived from our interdependence with the rest of the UK, Scotland’s place as an essential part of a strong United Kingdom will be secure for many years to come.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North and Leith) (Lab/Co-op)]

I will keep my remarks as brief as possible, given the number of hon. Members who want to speak. The hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (Dr Whiteford) gave a comprehensive presentation of the SNP case for independence, but what struck me about it was something we increasingly see in the SNP arguments for independence: that on the one hand, independence is needed because it would make Scotland a better place; but on the other, independence would not change much, either. That is an inherent contradiction that we increasingly see in the SNP policy, precisely because there is a realisation that separation—full independence—is not attracting popular support, so the SNP and those supporting independence are trying to move back from it.

It is not just on economic issues that we have seen that. There is the famous quote, which I think is from the First Minister:

“on independence day…the Queen will be our Head of State, the pound will be our currency and you will still be watching your favourite programmes on the BBC.”

That is an example of how the argument is made that nothing much would change. Of course, on economic policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy, we see that even more.

[Ann McKechin (Glasgow North) (Lab)]

Does my hon. Friend agree that it is very strange that the First Minister came down to London about a month ago to address the Institute of Directors and intimated to it, but not to the Scottish Parliament, that he intended to align income tax rates, after separation, with those in the rest of the UK? We must ask—why bother?

[Mark Lazarowicz]

Indeed. That takes us to a point that I intended to deal with later but will deal with now. We are referring, with respect, to the arguments advanced by the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan, who is from the SNP. She seemed to be arguing at one point that Scotland would have a different approach to taxation and redistribution policy, suggesting, presumably, that it would be a higher-tax, higher-spending type of country. On the other hand, the First Minister is saying, as my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow North (Ann McKechin) pointed out, that income tax in an independent Scotland would be the same as in the rest of the UK. Of course, for the past six years, the SNP Government could have used the existing powers, if they had wanted to, to increase tax in Scotland and increase public spending, but they have not. The SNP is apparently in favour of a lower corporation tax rate in Scotland, yet it tells us that it would maintain the free movement of labour, services and capital throughout the UK. If that is the case, it is difficult to visualise Scotland having a separate corporation tax rate.

The issue of sterling has been—

[Mr Weir]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mark Lazarowicz]

With respect, I had better not, given the time.

The issue of sterling was raised. As we were reminded in an intervention, the Bank of England and monetary policy were of course made independent of politicians by the decision of a Labour Chancellor. However, the SNP Government have said that they want to see a seat for Scotland on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. They are trying to have it every which way. There are many areas in which we see that type of contradiction. An important one is, of course, the suggestion that the Bank of England would continue to regulate the financial services industry, even in an independent Scotland. That is incredibly important. The financial services sector is important in Scotland, particularly in my constituency and the constituencies of many other hon. Members.

Decisions such as how banks can advertise financial products and the requirements to maintain stability in terms of their capital base would be regulated by an institution in another country, over which we would have no say if we were a separate, independent state. That leaves aside the question, raised by Scottish Financial Enterprise, of whether it would be legal under EU rules to leave the regulation of our financial services sector to a foreign—as it would then be—country.

We have heard those in the SNP say that they do not want regional pay rates for the civil service, but the biggest regional pay difference across the UK would be if we were a separate country and the rates were negotiated on, presumably, a Scottish basis only. We see contradictions in many areas. Because the SNP recognises that voters and the public do not want full separation, it wants what some describe as independence-lite, but I describe as separation with a major democratic deficit, as my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow North East (Mr Bain) pointed out.

At best, the new Scottish Government could seek to negotiate with the Government of the remaining UK to have input on matters that affect Scotland’s interests, but they could not do that as a right, and would have to rely on the good will of a new UK Government. There is no reason why there would necessarily be ill will between the two successor states if Scotland separated; but obviously, a UK Government who no longer had Scotland as part of their state would have different interests and perspectives from one that still included Scotland. Scotland has MPs, Ministers and a voice in Parliament, where Ministers and the Chancellor can be held to account—for example, for actions in relation to the Bank of England. All of that will disappear after the separation of an independent Scotland.

It seems to be the worst of all possible worlds—a democratic deficit of no interest to Scotland, with no benefit to Scotland. Let us build on what we have with devolution, as expanded under the Scotland Act 2012 and current proposals, and improve it where we can. Let us get down to using the existing powers and not spend the next few years coming up with a new constitutional arrangement which, at the end of the day, will not even be independence in the full sense of the word, but, given the SNP arguments, will fall well short of it. It would be no good for Scotland or the UK.

[John Robertson (in the Chair)]

I intend to call the Front Benchers at six minutes past 12. I have two names here, so, gentlemen, sort it out.