Leaving the EU

Marcus Fysh Excerpts

Tuesday 24th October 2017 Commons Chamber

[Charlie Elphicke]

My hon. Friend has made a powerful point. He is absolutely right. If we lived in a world of tariffs, they would hit EU exports to the UK to the tune of £13 billion, but our exports to the European Union would be hit by only £6 billion. Tariffs would hurt the European Union twice as much as they would hurt the UK, and that is why a deal is in the interests of everyone. What is more, the lawyers are clear that the EU has no legally valid claim for its divorce bill. As a matter of international law, no deal will mean no money for the EU. Frankly, we could just say, “See you in court; we’ll test your case,” and take it to an independent court or international arbitration, because we know what the position is. That is another reason why a deal is in the interests of the EU.

The UK is also an important part of the security guarantee for the entire European continent. We are not just a defence umbrella; we also have a great treasure-trove of information and expertise, as well as being a bridge to the “Five Eyes”. That is why a deal that includes data and information sharing is needed by all, and why the Home Secretary is right to say that no deal on security would be unthinkable because it would be crazy for the EU not to want to continue to share information and data after we leave the EU. We might not want to be controlled by Brussels, but that does not mean we do not want to co-operate and have a positive relationship with all the remaining EU27 member states.

What about the view of the British people? This is yet another case where the people are way ahead of our political system. Here we hear voices, particularly from the Labour party, about how we should just write a blank cheque and fold on a deal whatever the terms, yet the British people say, “No, we didn’t vote to leave the EU only to pay out vast oceans of cash and be run by remote control.” So it is little surprise that a recent Sky News poll found that 74% of people think that no deal is better than a bad deal, and it appears that patience is starting to wear thin with the EU because a poll by Opinium last Friday found that 37% of people want the UK to leave the EU without a deal if by March 2019 no satisfactory deal has been reached.

[Mr Marcus Fysh (Yeovil) (Con)]

Does my hon. Friend agree that if we do not set the agenda for the circumstances of both having a deal and not, the EU will do it for us, and that is the antithesis of what the people voted for in the EU referendum?

[Charlie Elphicke]

My hon. Friend, who is a powerful advocate and champion for his constituency, makes a powerful point, and he is absolutely right, because the British people believe that the future is global, not regional or continental. They are right to do so: 90% of future world economic growth will come from outside the EU. Moreover, the EU has been in relative decline for the past 40 years: 40 years ago the EU accounted for 30% of global GDP; today the figure is just 15%. That is a massive relative decline, and it is hard to fathom why the OECD would want us to continue to be involved in an organisation whose share of GDP seems to be pointing in a southerly direction.

As the wider world grows, we can grow with it. The figures powerfully underline that, as did the Governor of the Bank of England in a powerful speech to the International Monetary Fund just last month, in which he said that the British people had taken a decision to step back in order to jump forward. He said that there will be short-term economic turbulence, but in the longer term Britain could be doing really quite well, and there was massive rationality in the decision taken.