Leaving the EU: Implications for Scotland

Luke Graham Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd July 2018 Westminster Hall

[Patricia Gibson]

I will make some progress. We in the SNP believe that the Government should negotiate to stay in the single market and the customs union, not least to protect the exchange of citizens’ rights between the EU and the UK.

Another area of huge concern is the importance of the single market and the customs union to protecting our social, trade and investment partnerships with EU businesses and Governments. The Scottish Government’s impact analysis has shown that a failure to remain in the single market and the customs union, or to secure a free trade agreement, would see Scotland’s GDP around £12.7 billion lower by 2030 than it would be under continued EU membership. That would mean a loss equivalent to £2,300 per person in Scotland. In addition, the impact analysis shows that a so-called Canada-type deal with the EU would still leave Scotland’s GDP £9 billion lower by 2030, or £1,610 per head.

Scotland’s food and drink exports have reached £6 billion—the highest level ever—with the EU being the largest market. However, the Economic and Social Research Institute reported that a hard Brexit would result in up to a 90% fall in exports to the EU from Scotland. Those are important voices from industry, and everybody who cares about Scotland’s economic prospects should listen to them. A hard Brexit would leave the UK isolated on the world stage and expose the country to a regulatory race to the bottom, compromising our trading relationships and consumer standards.

The right hon. Member for Witham (Priti Patel) has said that Brexit was an opportunity for widespread deregulation. The Foreign Secretary has said, “Scrap social Europe”. Daniel Hannan, a Tory MEP, said that all contracts between employers and employees should be “free contracts” with no statutory protection. There is no question but that Brexit will see a bonfire of British workers’ rights, given that those words come from the governing party. I do not claim to speak for the people of England, and nor should I, but we in Scotland are alarmed by those comments, which go against the values and beliefs that the people of Scotland hold dear.

The Secretary of State for International Trade is on the record as being “relaxed” about the diminution of food standards post Brexit, although the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has said he is opposed to it. The Prime Minister simply responded that the questions were “hypothetical”. Food standards that are currently banned across the EU may become permissible in the UK post Brexit, which precipitates concerns about the proverbial race to the bottom. More relaxed standards have implications for animal welfare and raise potential environmental and public health concerns. Will Scotland really have to endure such standards post Brexit? Is that what was meant by taking back control?

The UK will seek to pursue new trade deals, particularly with the US. Since we already know that procurement and public contracts are important objectives for the US in negotiating a trade deal, as demonstrated by the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiations, Scotland’s public services are at risk of being bargained off in new agreements. For the people of Scotland, that is simply unacceptable. Hon. Members across the House will know that, because they, too, will have received countless emails from constituents about it. If any hon. Member in the Chamber has not received any emails about the issue, they should feel free to intervene now.

A growing number of people in Scotland are bewildered. In Scotland, we had a referendum on EU membership, which there was no evidence that Scotland wanted. We in Scotland voted to remain in the EU by a convincing majority, but we are now being removed against our will from a family of nations of which we wish to remain part. To add insult to injury, Scotland’s voice in the UK negotiations has been summarily ignored. We all witnessed the farce on 12 June. Despite the implications of Scotland being dragged out of the EU, we were allocated a mere 19 minutes. Not one Scottish MP from any party was permitted to speak and there was no protected time for the debate. We witnessed an unprecedented ripping up of the devolution settlement, with Scotland’s voice silenced.

[Luke Graham (Ochil and South Perthshire) (Con)]

On timing, does the hon. Lady recognise that in this Parliament, we have spent 252 hours debating Brexit, and we will spend several more, whereas the Scottish Parliament has spent only 25 hours on legislation that was rushed through on an emergency basis? It is not right for her to take a high hand when it comes to time.

[Patricia Gibson]

The hon. Gentleman may not be aware of this, so I will enlighten him: Scotland did not vote for Brexit and the Brexit negotiations are being carried out by the UK Government. They are therefore duty-bound to allow Scottish MPs, who represent people who did not vote for Brexit, proper time to debate the implications of Brexit and the fact that the devolution settlement has been torn up, about which he appears to have no concern.

Let us be clear: in the democratically elected Scottish Parliament, every single party save the Tories—the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Greens—voted overwhelmingly against repatriating powers to London, by 95 votes to 32. During the Standing Orders debate in the Commons Chamber on 13 June, I was stunned to hear Scottish Tory MPs dismiss that lack of legislative consent—that power grab—by saying, to paraphrase them, “What does it matter? It is only powers over this, that or the other.” They may say that, but when you ignore the entire concept of consent and ride roughshod over democratic institutions elected by the people of Scotland, to which the Tory Government in Westminster have not listened, you do so at your peril.

--- Later in debate ---

[Luke Graham (Ochil and South Perthshire) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your direction this morning, Sir Roger. I congratulate the hon. Member for North Ayrshire and Arran (Patricia Gibson) on securing the debate. She started by saying she wanted a constructive debate, and I prepared my remarks on that basis. However, as she was giving her speech it was clear that I would not need those remarks, so I will speak off the cuff.

SNP Members made a lot of noise about how they are the voice of Scotland and speak for Scotland. I am not so arrogant. I was elected as the Member for Ochil and South Perthshire, so that is who I speak for—I do not speak for all of Scotland, but I speak for my constituents. It is time SNP Members started to be a little more modest and speak for their constituents rather than claiming to speak for the whole nation.

A point was made about GDP and business confidence; apparently, Scotland was doing really well before Brexit. In fact, it is clear that GDP and business confidence lagged behind the rest of the UK before 2016. Some 20 years after devolution and after 11 years of the SNP Administration, Brexit is not responsible for our below-par economic performance compared with the rest of the UK. It is not responsible for the fact that we are slipping in all the international education league tables or for the fact that we have not bucked the trend in the challenges that the NHS faces in Scotland, as it does in every other part of the UK. That is not down to Brexit; it is down to the SNP and its flawed Administration.

My next point is about scaremongering. The hon. Member for North Ayrshire and Arran and others talked about EU citizens. That issue has been clearly dealt with. It was dealt with in the December agreement and then in the March transitional agreement. They should not stoke up fears among EU citizens in my constituency when they know that an agreement is on the table between the UK and the EU. In fact, the UK has unilaterally guaranteed some rights, and I am sure the Minister will talk about people’s right to remain. Some people’s family members will even come to the UK to join them. I am sure the Minister will reiterate those points, but I ask the hon. Member for North Ayrshire and Arran to reflect on her comments, because they do nothing but undermine the confidence of people who contribute so much to my constituency.

Another point was raised about a bonfire of workers’ rights, but how can that be? We have just passed legislation in the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill that bakes all the EU legislation into British law, which means that rights will be respected across the United Kingdom and we will not fall below them. If anything comes up in subsequent debates about reducing rights, I will certainly not vote for that. Again, the hon. Lady should reflect on the facts, not the fiction.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership was mentioned. For members of the audience who might not be so familiar with the TTIP negotiation, the European Union negotiated a specific clause to protect public health systems in the EU, so at there was no risk of United States companies coming and taking over our NHS or any of the other public health systems in Europe, unless those countries individually opted for that. That clause was part of the negotiation. If we are to have these fundamentally important debates, let us have them on facts, not fiction.

Finally—I am conscious of the time—we have to remember that this is not a zero-sum game. A power for Westminster does not mean a power taken away from Scotland. That is why we are all here. Like the European Parliament, the United Kingdom Parliament has directly elected Scottish constituency MPs. We are directly elected by our constituents to be in this place and have these debates. Several of my colleagues are proudly serving in the Government at the moment. I could go even further: Scottish MPs who have served the Prime Minister for the entire United Kingdom have led us forward in peace, in war, in economic arrangements and in international and domestic engagements, reforming the health service and education or looking at infrastructure throughout the United Kingdom. Scottish MPs should not be undermined. We are here to make a difference, to fight for our constituents and to make sure a good deal is achieved on Brexit. Let us stick to the facts, not fiction. We will be here defending our constituents and working for the whole United Kingdom.

--- Later in debate ---

[Peter Grant]

The hon. Gentleman makes a valid point on a United Kingdom basis, but I gently remind him that we were elected with a substantial overall majority of Scottish seats in this place. As has been pointed out, the Scottish Government were elected on a manifesto commitment as well, which they will put into practice. Incidentally, his party was elected in 2015 on a manifesto that said it would keep us in the single market, so I do not know what its manifesto will be in next year’s general election.

As I said, 62% of the sovereign people of Scotland voted to remain in the European Union. We ignore that at our peril. If Scotland votes a different way from other parts of the United Kingdom, or if the Scottish Government and the UK Government, or their Parliaments, disagree, that does not create a constitutional crisis. It might create a political crisis, but a constitutional crisis happens only when those in power refuse to accept the will of the people. Clearly the UK Government intend to ride roughshod over the demand—not the desire, request or plea—of the people of the Scotland that our voice will be heard and that our links with our European partners will not be sacrificed on some altar of far-right ideology in a vain attempt to keep the Conservative party together.

[Luke Graham]

The hon. Gentleman makes a fine point about respecting the will of the people. Will he now publicly, for everyone in the Chamber, finally respect the will of the people in 2014, who voted by a 10-point margin, rather than by a four-point margin such as in the 2016 referendum, to stay in the United Kingdom? Here is your opportunity, sir—please take it.

[Peter Grant]

I do not know whether the hon. Gentleman has noticed, but we are in the United Kingdom Parliament. That is a kind of acceptance that, for now, Scotland is part of the United Kingdom. However, there is a legal principle that subsequent legislation always trumps previous legislation if the two are incompatible. What about the mandate in 2016 for the Scottish Government to give the people of Scotland a choice if Scotland is threatened with being taken out of the European Union against our will? Nobody forces the Scottish people to do anything. The Conservative party want to deny the people of Scotland the right to set our own future. They want to deny the people of Scotland the right to remain in the European Union, which 62% of us have demanded. In percentage terms, the majority to stay in the European Union was almost 2.5 times bigger than the majority to stay in the United Kingdom.

The Conservatives do all this fancy footwork—I call it the Maradona trick. They take the vote on one side in one referendum, and to back up their argument they compare it with the vote in a different election on a different day on a different question. I call it the Maradona trick because it would mean that Argentina were still in the World cup—Argentina scored three goals and Brazil scored only two, so Argentina stay in the World cup and Brazil go out. Totally ridiculous, but no more ridiculous than the attempts of the Scottish Conservatives to set one part of the electorate against another based on an election or referendum held on a completely different day.

The fact that the Scottish Conservatives turn up to a debate about Scotland’s place in Europe and spend most of their time arguing for the lost cause of Scotland’s place in the United Kingdom says it all. They cannot argue the benefits to Scotland of leaving the European Union, because there are none. The damage done to Scotland by being forced to leave the European Union against our will is even greater than the damage that would be done if we left on our own terms and with the will of the people.

The people of Scotland are our masters; they are our sovereigns. There is no absolute parliamentary sovereignty in Scotland. There is no absolute sovereignty of the monarch, nor will there be of anyone who replaces the monarch in the future. The people are the absolute sovereigns, and our sovereigns have told us what to do. Brexit threatens to deny the people of Scotland the right to have the country that they have decided they want to have. Anyone who ignores the people in that context does so at their peril, because the people of Scotland will not be kept silent.

The hon. Member for Stirling (Stephen Kerr) shakes his head, with that smug smirk that he is so fond of.

[Peter Grant]

It is not a threat to say that the people have spoken and will ensure that their voice is heard. If the Scottish Conservatives are afraid of the voice of the people, what are they doing here?

[Luke Graham]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Peter Grant]

I will give way just once more, on the off-chance it is worthwhile listening.

[Luke Graham]

I will try to make it worth the hon. Gentleman’s while. I am still caught on the Maradona comment; if only I could rival those skills. Does he not realise that not only Scotland but London, Manchester and Bristol voted to remain? Should all the different parts of the UK that did not vote the same way threaten to leave? I do not think so. There are different views across the United Kingdom. Everyone should be respected, and not threatened.

[Peter Grant]

I am trying very hard to think of a way of saying, “The people of Scotland are sovereign,” in words of one syllable. The difficulty that some Government Members have is that the word “Europe” is more than one syllable, so some of the arguments seem to be beyond them. The people of London are not sovereign over London. I would argue that the people of England are sovereign over England—I am quite happy with that. England is a nation. What a fall from grace it is, in just over a year, for someone who came down here to stand up for Scotland to say now that Scotland is a city of England and has no more rights to self-determination than the great cities of England. Scottish Conservatives came down here saying that they would stand up for Scotland, and suddenly they are not speaking for Scotland, but talking about Scotland as some kind of equivalent to Leeds, London, Manchester or anywhere else.

Scotland is an “equal partner” in this Union of nations. Those are not our words, but the Government’s words from 2014. It is not an equal partner of a city, region or county council, but an equal partner of the other nations in the Union. The sovereigns of that equal partner have said, “We want to stay in the European Union.” If that choice is not made available to the people of Scotland within the United Kingdom, it will be made available to them by some other means.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stephen Kerr]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Luke Graham]

rose—

[Mr Sweeney]

I am happy to give way on that point.

[Luke Graham]

But to which one of us?

[Mr Sweeney]

I give way to the hon. Member for Stirling (Stephen Kerr).

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Sweeney]

On the topic of the Scottish devolution amendment—

[Luke Graham]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Sweeney]

I am happy to give way.

[Luke Graham]

The hon. Gentleman is making a point about how fundamental the issue is and how important it is for the UK Parliament and for debates in this place. Does he not feel that the strength of feeling in his party is accurately represented by the number of attendees in this debate?

[Mr Sweeney]

It is a matter of logistics. My hon. Friend the Member for Midlothian (Danielle Rowley) was an observer at the Mexican elections and is still in Mexico. The shadow Secretary of State is at shadow Cabinet. Other hon. Members are at the Scottish Affairs Committee. They are all working hard in other forums for the people of Scotland, and the hon. Gentleman’s accusation is entirely unfair.

The Opposition realise that that incident of shutting down debate is not likely to be the only time that Scotland’s voice is shut out of the Brexit talks. It is definitely not the only time we will witness a fight between the UK Government and the Scottish Government. I would be surprised if we did not see the same approach taken by both Governments when it comes to the Trade Bill, the customs Bill, the agriculture Bill and the fisheries Bill. Each and every one of those pieces of legislation will have implications for people in Scotland and for our constituents, and we must not forget that. What people want is not for the Governments in different parts of the UK to be at each other’s throats, arguing about technicalities; they want the Governments to work together in a collaborative, respectful manner and to find solutions to problems. That is why we see the need for a dispute resolution mechanism to be formally agreed. I refer Members to the speech by the shadow Secretary of State for Scotland in this place on 20 June if they are struggling for ideas on what those mechanisms might be.

Constitutionally, we are in this mess because of the Tory Government. Their complete and utter lack of understanding about devolution has been quite astounding and astonishing to witness. From the original drafting of clause 11 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, all the way through to the shutting down of debate, it is clear that they neither care about nor respect people in Scotland.

Moving on to the social implications, in December 2017, 150,000 European Union nationals were working in Scotland—5.7% of all people in employment in Scotland. Some 18,000 of those EU nationals work in the public sector, predominantly in our education system and our national health service, yet it took the UK Government more than a year to guarantee that they would even be allowed to remain in the UK. Even now, we know that they will have to pay £65 a head to stay in their own homes and continue to work in the vital public services upon which we all rely. It is an utter shambles. I ask the Minister a simple question: what happens to our public services if the EU nationals decide that they no longer want to be subjected to this country’s hostile environment and return to their country of origin, because without them, our national health service would crumble and our schools would grind to a halt? Have the Government made contingency plans for every eventuality?

We have not even got to the economic implications of Scotland leaving the EU. I made clear in my opening remarks that the Labour party respects the result of the referendum and accepts that we will be leaving the European Union. That does not mean that we are giving the Government a blank cheque or a free hand to negotiate any kind of deal they see fit. While we accept the result of the referendum, we must now focus on what our relationship with the European Union will look like. We have been clear throughout that the relationship must be a close and collaborative one that affords us the benefits of membership of the single market and also keeps us in a customs union.

There are many Tory Members who want to have a clean break from the European Union, but the Scottish Government’s analysis shows that Scotland could see its GDP fall by 8.5% by 2030 in a no-deal scenario. If Government Members do not like that analysis, they just need to look closer to home: the UK Government’s analysis shows that Scotland could see its GDP fall by 9% in the same timeframe if we have a no-deal scenario. I am not entirely sure what planet Members on the Government Benches live on, but that would be absolutely devastating for the Scottish economy. I cannot for the life of me see how anyone could advocate that as a policy.

I use this opportunity to issue a plea to Scottish Tory Members: it is time for them to stand up and use their leverage on the UK Government to ensure that the madness is stopped, and that we have a reasonable and logical approach to addressing the shortcomings of negotiations as they currently stand with the European Union. We have heard rhetoric about a deep and special relationship with the European Union for more than two years now, but the timeframe we have left amounts to a mere six weeks of negotiating time. I ask the Minister one question: when will we know what the UK Government’s plans are, from an economic point of view? Time is fast running out and the whole country cannot wait until after the Prime Minister’s Mad Hatter’s tea party at Chequers to get some answers.